ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8017-4494; Ali, Solomon ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5641-8797; Gudina, Esayas Kebede ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6264-9695; Adissu, Wondimagegn ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1624-3114; Gize, Addisu; Muenchhoff, Maximilian ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7016-0470; Graf, Alexander ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4435-6861; Krebs, Stefan ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5112-9507; Elsbernd, Kira ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1616-0212; Kisch, Rebecca ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8583-4324; Betizazu, Sisay Sirgu ORCID: https://orcid.org/0009-0001-5187-4643; Fantahun, Bereket; Bekele, Delayehu ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9243-2622; Rubio-Acero, Raquel; Gashaw, Mulatu ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2299-7863; Girma, Eyob ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9030-4328; Yilma, Daniel ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6058-2696; Zeynudin, Ahmed; Paunovic, Ivana ORCID: https://orcid.org/0009-0005-5943-6153; Hoelscher, Michael ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7642-1835; Blum, Helmut ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3994-2332; Hasenauer, Jan ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4935-3312; Kroidl, Arne ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3569-9176 und Wieser, Andreas
(2024):
Long-term monitoring of SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence and variants in Ethiopia provides prediction for immunity and cross-immunity.
In: Nature Communications, Vol. 15, No. 1, 3463
[PDF, 2MB]
Abstract
Under-reporting of COVID-19 and the limited information about circulating SARS-CoV-2 variants remain major challenges for many African countries. We analyzed SARS-CoV-2 infection dynamics in Addis Ababa and Jimma, Ethiopia, focusing on reinfection, immunity, and vaccination effects. We conducted an antibody serology study spanning August 2020 to July 2022 with five rounds of data collection across a population of 4723, sequenced PCR-test positive samples, used available test positivity rates, and constructed two mathematical models integrating this data. A multivariant model explores variant dynamics identifying wildtype, alpha, delta, and omicron BA.4/5 as key variants in the study population, and cross-immunity between variants, revealing risk reductions between 24% and 69%. An antibody-level model predicts slow decay leading to sustained high antibody levels. Retrospectively, increased early vaccination might have substantially reduced infections during the delta and omicron waves in the considered group of individuals, though further vaccination now seems less impactful.
| Item Type: | Journal article |
|---|---|
| Faculties: | Medicine > Max von Pettenkofer-Institute Medicine > Institute for Medical Information Processing, Biometry and Epidemiology Medicine > Medical Center of the University of Munich > Medical Clinic and Outpatient Clinic IV (Endocrinology, nephrology, other sections) |
| Subjects: | 600 Technology > 610 Medicine and health |
| URN: | urn:nbn:de:bvb:19-epub-116666-8 |
| ISSN: | 2041-1723 |
| Language: | English |
| Item ID: | 116666 |
| Date Deposited: | 16. May 2024 13:56 |
| Last Modified: | 16. May 2024 13:56 |
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