Credence and Belief: Distance- and Utility-Based Approaches

Wang, Minkyung und Kim, Chisu (2024): Credence and Belief: Distance- and Utility-Based Approaches. In: Philosophy of Science, Vol. 91, No. 3: pp. 759-779

Abstract

This paper investigates the question of how subjective probability should relate to binary belief. We propose new distance minimization methods, and develop epistemic decision-theoretic accounts. Both approaches can be shown to get “close” to the truth: the first one by getting “close” to a given probability, and the second by getting expectedly “close” to the truth. More specifically, we study distance minimization with a refined notion of Bregman divergence and expected utility maximization with strict proper scores. Our main results reveal that the two ways to get “close” to the truth can coincide.

• Item Type: Journal article
• Faculties: Philosophy, Philosophy of Science and Religious Science > Munich Center for Mathematical Philosophy (MCMP)
• Subjects: 100 Philosophy and Psychology > 100 Philosophy; 500 Science > 510 Mathematics
• ISSN: 0031-8248
• Language: English