Associations of Long-Term Exposure to Temperature Variability with Glucose Metabolism: Results from KORA F4 and FF4

Ni, Wenli ; Zhang, Siqi; Herder, Christian ; Breitner-Busch, Susanne ; Wolf, Kathrin; Liao, Minqi ; Nikolaou, Nikolaos ; Pickford, Regina; Koenig, Wolfgang ; Rathmann, Wolfgang; Schwettmann, Lars ; Roden, Michael; Thorand, Barbara ; Peters, Annette und Schneider, Alexandra (2025): Associations of Long-Term Exposure to Temperature Variability with Glucose Metabolism: Results from KORA F4 and FF4. In: Environmental Science & Technology, Vol. 59, No. 45: pp. 24246-24256

Abstract

The impact of rising temperature variability driven by climate change on metabolic health remains understudied, especially considering the global increase in diabetes prevalence, with long-term effects on glucose metabolism unexplored. This study investigated associations between long-term temperature variability exposure and glucose metabolism in a population-based cohort of 2997 participants (4954 observations) over a 7-year period from KORA F4 and FF4 cohorts in Augsburg, Germany. Long-term exposure to temperature variability was estimated as the standard deviation of the daily mean air temperature over the 365-day period preceding each examination. We applied generalized estimating equations to examine the longitudinal associations between long-term exposure to temperature variability and multiple glucose metabolism biomarkers: fasting glucose, 2h glucose, fasting insulin, homeostasis model assessment of insulin resistance (HOMA-IR), homeostasis model assessment of β-cell function (HOMA-B), quantitative insulin sensitivity check index (QUICKI), and glycated hemoglobin (HbA1c). We found that a 1 °C higher temperature variability was significantly associated with higher fasting insulin, HOMA-IR, and HbA1c with % changes (95% CI) of 2.62 (0.79; 4.49), 2.81 (0.79; 4.87), and 2.38 (1.97; 2.79), respectively, and lower QUICKI (-0.41 [-0.70; -0.11]). These findings suggest that increasing temperature variability exposure may contribute to metabolic dysfunction, potentially accelerating the global diabetes epidemic.

• Item Type: Journal article
• Keywords: HOMA-IR; HbA1c; QUICKI; fasting insulin; glucose metabolism; long-term effects; temperature variability
• Faculties: Medicine > Institute for Medical Information Processing, Biometry and Epidemiology
• Subjects: 600 Technology > 610 Medicine and health
• ISSN: 0013-936X
• Language: English