Designed Uncertainty in Mystery Products

Elgayar, Alaa; Guhl, Daniel; Stich, Lucas und Spann, Martin (14. February 2026): Designed Uncertainty in Mystery Products. Collaborative Research Center Transregio 190, Discussion Paper No. 565

Abstract

Mystery products deliberately hide key attributes until after purchase and have become a common strategy in retail and services, yet systematic evidence on how to design them effectively remains limited. This research studies two managerial levers---outcome-set composition and uncertainty framing (risk vs. ambiguity)---in two incentive-aligned choice experiments: an induced-value lab study with vertically differentiated outcomes and a large-scale choice-based conjoint on apparel with horizontally differentiated brands. Willingness-to-pay is shaped primarily by the structure of the outcome set: when a dominant outcome is included, consumers discount the mystery product; when outcomes are similar in value, a premium can emerge. Ambiguity reduces valuation primarily when outcome differentiation is high, and it shifts attention away from brand and ``mystery'' cues toward tangible attributes such as fit and color. In market simulations, mystery products are more price-elastic than fully specified alternatives and shift profits toward participating brands, especially weaker ones, while non-participants lose. Overall, the results inform when and how designed uncertainty can be used as a marketing instrument.

• Item Type: Paper
• Keywords: mystery products, choice-based conjoint, hierarchical bayes, market simulation, price competition
• Faculties: Munich School of Management; Economics > Collaborative Research Center Transregio "Rationality and Competition"
• Subjects: 300 Social sciences > 330 Economics
• JEL Classification: D81, D12, C25
• Language: English
• DFG: Gefördert durch die Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (DFG) - 280092119