|Komlos, John; Breitfelder, Ariane; Sunder, Marco (8. Juni 2008): The transition to Post-industrial BMI values among US children. Münchener Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Beiträge (VWL) 2008-10|
Background: The trend in the BMI values of US children has not been estimated very convincingly because of the absence of longitudinal data. Our object is to estimate time series of BMI values by birth cohorts instead of measurement years. Methods: We use five regression models to estimate the BMI trends of non-Hispanic US-born black and white children and adolescents ages 2-19 between 1941 and 2004. Results: The increase in BMIZ values during the period considered was 1.3σ (95% CI: 1.16σ; 1.44σ) among black girls, 0.8σ for black boys, 0.7σ for white boys, and 0.6σ for white girls. This translates into an increase in BMI values of some 5.6, 3.3, 2.4, and 1.5 units respectively. While the increase in BMI values started among the birth cohorts of the 1940s among black girls, the rate of increase tended to accelerate among all four ethnic/gender groups born in the mid-1950s – early-1960s. Conclusion: Some regional evidence leads to the conjecture that the spread of automobiles and radios affected the BMI values of boys already in the interwar period. We suppose that the changes in lifestyle associated with the labor saving technological developments of the 20th century are associated with the weight gains observed. The increased popularity of television viewing was most prominently associated with the contemporaneous acceleration in BMI gain.
|Dokumententyp:||Paper (Discussion Paper)|
|Keywords:||BMI, BMIZ, US, children, youth, adolescents, NHANES, obesity epidemic, overweight|
Volkswirtschaft > Munich Discussion Papers in Economics
Volkswirtschaft > Munich Discussion Papers in Economics > Wirtschaftsgeschichte
Volkswirtschaft > Lehrstühle > Seminar für Wirtschaftsgeschichte
|Themengebiete:||300 Sozialwissenschaften > 300 Sozialwissenschaft, Soziologie
300 Sozialwissenschaften > 330 Wirtschaft
|Veröffentlicht am:||10. Jun. 2008 08:55|
|Letzte Änderungen:||25. Jan. 2017 15:24|
Anderson, PM., Butcher, KF., and Levine Phillip B., 2003. Economic Perspectives on childhood obesity. Economic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, 3: 30-48.
Bleich, S., Cutler, D., Murray, C., Adams, A., 2007. Why is the Developed World Obese?. NBER Working Paper 12954.
Brezger A, Kneib T, Lang S. 2005. BayesX. Software for Bayesian Inference. Reference Manual, Version 1.4. University of Munich. http://www.stat.unimuenchen. de/~bayesx/manual/reference_manual.pdf
Brezger A, Lang S. 2006. Generalized structured additive regression based on Bayesian P-Splines. Computational Statistics and Data Analysis 50:967-991.
Carson, S. 2008. Racial Differences in Body Mass Indices at the Time they were Imprisoned in 19th Century Pennsylvania. Unpublished manuscript.
Chou SY, Grossman M. Saffer H. 2004. An economic analysis of adult obesity: results from the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System. Journal of Health Economics 23, 565- 587.
Chou SY, Rashad, I., Grossman, 2007. Fast-Food Restaurant Advertising on Television and Its Influence on Childhood Obesity. Unpublished manuscript.
Costa D. 2004. A Measure of Man and Older Age Mortality: Evidence from the Gould Sample. The Journal of Economic History 64; (1): 1-23.
Costa, Dora L., and Richard H. Steckel. Long-Term Trends in Health, Welfare, and Economic Growth in the United States. In Health and Welfare during Industrialization, edited by Richard H. Steckel and Roderick Floud, 47-91. Chicago: The University of Chicago Press, 1997.
Coclanis P, Komlos J. 1995. Nutrition and Economic Development in Post-Reconstruction South Carolina: an Anthropometric Approach. Social Science History 19: 91- 116.
Cuff T. 1993. The Body Mass Index Values of Mid-Nineteenth-Century West Point Cadets: A Theoretical Application of Waaler's Curves to a Historical Population. Historical Methods 26, (4): 171-82.
Cutler DM, Glaeser Edward L, and Shapiro JM. 2003. Why Have Americans Become More Obese?. Journal of Economic Perspectives 17(3):93-118.
DuMouchel, WH and Duncan, GJ. 1983. Using sample survey weights in multiple regression analyses of stratified samples. Journal of the American Statistical Association 78:535-543.
Eilers, P.H.C., Marx, B.D., 1996. Flexible smoothing using B-splines and penalized likelihood (with comments and rejoinder). Statistical Science 11 (2), 89-121.
Freedman DS, Srinivasan SR, Valdez RA, Williamson DF, Berenson GS. 1997. Secular Increases in Relative Weight and Adiposity Among Children Over Two Decades: The Bogalusa Heart Study. Pediatrics 99, no. 3, March, 420-426.
Freedman DS, Khan KL, Serdula MK, Ogden, CL, Dietz, WH. 2006. Racial and Ethnic Differences in Secular Trends for Childhood BMI, Weight, and Height. Obesity 14, Feb (2), 301-08.
Gelman, A., 2007. Struggles with Survey Weighting and Regression Modeling. Statistical Science 22, 2:153-164.
Gould, B., 1869. Investigations in the Military and Anthropological Statistics of American Soldiers. Cambridge: Riverside, Press. Reprinted Arno Press, NY 1979.
Guthrie Joanne, Lin Biing-Hwan, Brazao Elizabeth, 2002. Role of Food Prepared Away from Home in the American diet, 1977-78 versus 1994-96: Changes and Consequences. Journal of Nutrition Education and Behavior 34, 3: 140-150.
Hedley AA, Ogden CL, Johnson CL, Carroll MD, Curtin, LR, Flegal KM 2004. Prevalence of Overweight and Obesity Among US Children, Adolescents, and Adults, 1999-2002. JAMA 291, June 16, no. 23: 2847-2850.
Hermanussen, M., Molinari, L., Satake, T. 2007. BMI in Japanese children since 1948: no evidence of a major rise in the prevalence of obesity in Japan. Anthropologischer Anzeige 65, 3:275-283.
Komlos J. 1987. The Height and Weight of West Point Cadets: Dietary Change in Antebellum America. Journal of Economic History 47, no. 4: 897-927.
Komlos J, Baur M. 2004. From the Tallest to (One of) the Fattest: The Enigmatic Fate of the Size of the American Population in the Twentieth Century. Economics and Human Biology 2:57-74.
Komlos, J. Breitfelder A. 2008. Height of US-Born Non-Hispanic Children and Adolescents Ages 2-19, Born 1941-2002 in the NHANES Samples. American Journal of Human Biology 20:66-71.
Komlos, J. Lauderdale BE. 2007. The Mysterious Trend in American Heights in the 20th Century. Annals of Human Biology, 34, 2:206-215.
Kuczmarski RJ, Ogden CL, Guo SS, Grummer-Strawn LM, Flegal KM, Mei Z, Wei R, Curtin LR, Roche AF, Johnson CL. 2002. 2000 CDC growth charts for the United States: Methods and Development. National Center for Health Statistics. Vital Health Statistics 11(246).
Lakdawalla, D, Philipson, T. and Bhattacharya, J. 2005. Welfare-Enhancing Technological Change and the Growth of Obesity. American Economic Review: AEA Papers and Proceedings 95(2):253–57.
Lang S, Sunder M. 2003. Non-parametric regression with BayesX: a flexible estimation of trends in human physical stature in 19th century America. Economics & Human Biology 1: 77-89.
Lin Biing-Hwan, Guthrie Joanne, Frazao Elizabeth, 2001. American Children’s Diets not Making the Grade. Food Review 24, 2: 8-17.
Meredith, H. 1963. Change in the Stature and Body weight of North American Boys During the Last 80 Years. Advances in Child Development and Behaviour 6: 69-114.
Norton, K., Dollman, J., Martin, M., and Harten, N, 2006. Descriptive epidemiology of childhood overweight and obesity in Australia: 1901-2003. International Journal of Pediatric Obesity 1: 232-238.
Offer A. 2001. Body-Weight and Self-Control in the USA and Britain since the 1950s. Social History of Medicine. 14, 1: 79-106.
Offer A. 2001. The Challenge of Affluence: Self-control and Well-being in the USA and Britain since 1950. Oxford University Press.
Ogden CL, Carroll MD, Curtin LR, McDowell MA, Tabak, CJ, Flegal KM. 2006.Prevalence of overweight and obesity in the United States, 1999-2004. Journal of the American Medical Association, April 5, 295, no. 13: 1549-1555.
Ogden, CL, Carroll, MD, Flegal, KM. 2008. High Body Mass Index for Age Among US Children and Adolescents, 2003-2006. Journal of the American Medical Association 299(20):2401-2405.
Ogden, CL, Flegal, KM, Carroll, MD, Johnson, CL. 2002. Prevalence and trends in overweight among US children and adolescents, 1999–2000. JAMA 288,1728-1732
Ogden CL, Fryar CD, Carroll MD, Flegal M. 2004. Mean Body Weight, Height and Body Mass Index, United States 1960-2002. Advance Data from Vital and Health Statistics, No. 347, October 27, US Department of Health and Human Services, Centers for Disease Control for Health Statistics.
Philipson, T., and R., Posner, 2003, The Long Run Growth of Obesity as a Function of Technological Change, Perspectives in Biology and Medicine, 46, No 3, 87-108.
Philipson, T., and R., Posner, 2008, Is the Obesity Epidemic a Public Health Problem? A Decade of Research on the Economics of Obesity. NBER Working Paper 14010.
Popkin BM. 2004. The Nutrition Transition: Worldwide Obesity Dynamics and Their Determinants. International Journal of Obesity 28:S2-S9.
Powell, LM. Szczypka G. Chaloupka FJ. Braunschweig CL. 2007. Nutritional Content of Television Food Advertisements Seen by Children and Adolescents in the United States. Pediatrics 120, Number 3, 576-583.
Rogol AD, Roemmich JN, Clark PA. 2002. Growth at Puberty. Journal of Adolescent Health 31:192-200.
Rosenbaum PR. 2005, Heterogeneity and Causality: Unit Heterogeneity and Design Sensitivity in Observational Studies. The American Statistician 59, no. 2: 147 – 152.
Salti, R., Tarquini, R., Stagi, S., Perfetto, F., Cornélissen, G., Laffi, G., Mazzoccoli, G., Halberg, F., Age-dependent association of exposure to television screen with children’s urinary melatonin excretion?. Neuroendocrinology Letters 27, 1-2:73-80.
Strauss RS, Pollack HA, 2001. Epidemic Increase in Childhood Overweight, 1986-1998 JAMA. 286: Dec. no. 22:2845-2848.
Troiano, RP, Flegal, KM. 1998. Overweight Children and Adolescents: Description, Epidemiology, and Demographics. Pediatrics 101, no. 3, Supplement March, 497-504.
US Bureau of the Census, Current Population Survey, September 2001. http://www.census.gov/population/socdemo/computer/ppl-175/tab02A.xls.
Yatchew, A. 1998. Nonparametric regression techniques in economics. Journal of Economic Literature 36 (2), 669-721.