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Froelich, Matthias F.; Heinemann, Volker; Sommer, Wieland H.; Holch, Julian W.; Schöppe, Franziska; Hesse, Nina; Baumann, Alena B.; Kunz, Wolfgang G.; Reiser, Maximilian F.; Ricke, Jens; D'Anastasi, Melvin; Stintzing, Sebastian; Modest, Dominik P.; Kazmierczak, Philipp M. und Hofmann, Felix O. (2018): CT attenuation of liver metastases before targeted therapy is a prognostic factor of overall survival in colorectal cancer patients. Results from the randomised, open-label FIRE-3/AIO KRK0306 trial. In: European Radiology, Bd. 28, Nr. 12: S. 5284-5292

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Abstract

Objective: To assess the prognostic value of pre-therapeutic computed tomography (CT) attenuation of liver metastases for overall survival (OS) in metastatic colorectal cancer (mCRC).Methods: In the open-label, randomised, prospective phase-III FIRE-3 trial, patients with histologically confirmed mCRC received fluorouracil (5-FU), leucovorin and irinotecan (FOLFIRI) with either cetuximab or bevacizumab. Participating patients gave written informed consent prior to study entry. In CT at baseline (portal venous phase, slice thickness 5 mm), mean attenuation [Hounsfield units (HU)] of liver metastases was retrospectively assessed by semi-automated volumetry. Its prognostic influence on OS was analysed in Kaplan-Meier-analysis and Cox proportional hazard regression and an optimal threshold was determined.Results: In FIRE-3, 592 patients were enrolled between 2007 and 2012. Among the 347 patients eligible for liver volumetry, median baseline CT attenuation of liver metastases was 59.67 HU [interquartile range (IQR), 49.13, 68.85]. Increased attenuation was associated with longer OS {per 10 HU: hazard ratio (HR), 0.85 [95% confidence interval (CI), 0.78, 0.93], p < 0.001}. The optimised threshold (61.62 HU) was a strong predictor for increased OS [median, 21.3 vs 30.6 months;HR, 0.61 (95% CI, 0.47, 0.80), p < 0.001]. Multivariate regression controlling for correlated and further prognostic factors confirmed this [HR, 0.60 (95% CI, 0.45, 0.81), p = 0.001]. Furthermore, mean attenuation 61.62 HU was significantly associated with increased early tumour shrinkage (p = 0.002) and increased depth of response (p = 0.012).Conclusion: sIncreased mean baseline CT attenuation of liver metastases may identify mCRC patients with prolonged OS and better tumour response.Key Points center dot In colorectal cancer, increased attenuation of liver metastases in baseline computed tomography is a prognostic factor for prolonged OS (p < 0.001).center dot A threshold of 61.62 HU was determined as optimal cut-off to identify patients with prolonged OS (p < 0.001), early tumour shrinkage (p = 0.002) and increased depth of response (p = 0.012).

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