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Kapsner, Andreas (2022): Lord Nicholls on the likelihood of crimes. In: Synthese, Vol. 200, No. 6 [PDF, 255kB]

Abstract

In the decision to the British appeals case Re H (Minors), Judge Lord Nicholls, talking about criminal behavior, stated that that the more serious the allegation the less likely it is that the event occurred. There is actually quite a bit of discussion about the conclusions that should be drawn from this observation in the literature, but I have not found much discussion of the question whether the observation is right. I find this surprising, and in this essay I want to inspect this question.

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