Intensification of Very Wet Monsoon Seasons in India Under Global Warming

Katzenberger, Anja; Levermann, Anders; Schewe, Jacob und Pongratz, Julia (2022): Intensification of Very Wet Monsoon Seasons in India Under Global Warming. In: Geophysical Research Letters, Bd. 49, Nr. 15, e2022GL098856

Abstract

Rainfall-intense summer monsoon seasons on the Indian subcontinent that are exceeding long-term averages cause widespread floods and landslides. Here we show that the latest generation of coupled climate models robustly project an intensification of very rainfall-intense seasons (June-September). Under the shared socioeconomic pathway SSP5-8.5, very wet monsoon seasons as observed in only 5 years in the period 1965-2015 are projected to occur 8 times more often in 2050-2100 in the multi-model average. Under SSP2-4.5, these seasons become only a factor of 6 times more frequent, showing that even modest efforts to mitigate climate change can have a strong impact on the frequency of very strong rainfall seasons. Besides, we find that the increasing risk of extreme seasonal rainfall is accompanied by a shift from days with light rainfall to days with moderate or heavy rainfall. Additionally, the number of wet days is projected to increase.

• Dokumententyp: Zeitschriftenartikel
• Fakultät: Geowissenschaften > Department für Geographie > Physische Geographie und Landnutzungssysteme
• Themengebiete: 500 Naturwissenschaften und Mathematik > 550 Geowissenschaften, Geologie
• ISSN: 0094-8276
• Sprache: Englisch