Abstract
Rainfall-intense summer monsoon seasons on the Indian subcontinent that are exceeding long-term averages cause widespread floods and landslides. Here we show that the latest generation of coupled climate models robustly project an intensification of very rainfall-intense seasons (June-September). Under the shared socioeconomic pathway SSP5-8.5, very wet monsoon seasons as observed in only 5 years in the period 1965-2015 are projected to occur 8 times more often in 2050-2100 in the multi-model average. Under SSP2-4.5, these seasons become only a factor of 6 times more frequent, showing that even modest efforts to mitigate climate change can have a strong impact on the frequency of very strong rainfall seasons. Besides, we find that the increasing risk of extreme seasonal rainfall is accompanied by a shift from days with light rainfall to days with moderate or heavy rainfall. Additionally, the number of wet days is projected to increase.
Item Type: | Journal article |
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Faculties: | Geosciences > Department of Geography > Physical Geography and Land Use Systems |
Subjects: | 500 Science > 550 Earth sciences and geology |
ISSN: | 0094-8276 |
Language: | English |
Item ID: | 110698 |
Date Deposited: | 02. Apr 2024, 07:20 |
Last Modified: | 02. Apr 2024, 07:20 |