Portfolio Optimization on Multivariate Regime-Switching GARCH Model with Normal Tempered Stable Innovation

Peng, Cheng; Kim, Young Shin und Mittnik, Stefan (2022): Portfolio Optimization on Multivariate Regime-Switching GARCH Model with Normal Tempered Stable Innovation. In: Journal of Risk and Financial Management, Bd. 15, Nr. 5, 230

Abstract

This paper uses simulation-based portfolio optimization to mitigate the left tail risk of the portfolio. The contribution is twofold. (i) We propose the Markov regime-switching GARCH model with multivariate normal tempered stable innovation (MRS-MNTS-GARCH) to accommodate fat tails, volatility clustering and regime switch. The volatility of each asset independently follows the regime-switch GARCH model, while the correlation of joint innovation of the GARCH models follows the Hidden Markov Model. (ii) We use tail risk measures, namely conditional value-at-risk (CVaR) and conditional drawdown-at-risk (CDaR), in the portfolio optimization. The optimization is performed with the sample paths simulated by the MRS-MNTS-GARCH model. We conduct an empirical study on the performance of optimal portfolios. Out-of-sample tests show that the optimal portfolios with tail measures outperform the optimal portfolio with standard deviation measure and the equally weighted portfolio in various performance measures. The out-of-sample performance of the optimal portfolios is also more robust to suboptimality on the efficient frontier.

• Dokumententyp: Zeitschriftenartikel
• Fakultät: Mathematik, Informatik und Statistik > Statistik
• Themengebiete: 500 Naturwissenschaften und Mathematik > 510 Mathematik
• ISSN: 1911-8066
• Sprache: Englisch