Data-driven dynamic treatment planning for chronic diseases

Naumzik, Christof; Feuerriegel, Stefan und Nielsen, Anne Molgaard (2022): Data-driven dynamic treatment planning for chronic diseases. In: European Journal of Operational Research, Bd. 305, Nr. 2: S. 853-867

Abstract

In order to deliver effective care, health management must consider the distinctive trajectories of chronic diseases. These diseases recurrently undergo acute, unstable, and stable phases, each of which requires a different treatment regimen. However, the correct identification of trajectory phases, and thus treat-ment regimens, is challenging. In this paper, we propose a data-driven, dynamic approach for identifying trajectory phases of chronic diseases and thus suggesting treatment regimens. Specifically, we develop a novel variable-duration copula hidden Markov model (VDC-HMMX). In our VDC-HMMX, the trajectory is modeled as a series of latent states with acute, stable, and unstable phases, which are eventually recov-ered. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our VDC-HMMX model on the basis of a longitudinal study with 928 patients suffering from low back pain. A myopic classifier identifies correct treatment regimens with a balanced accuracy of slightly above 70%. In comparison, our VDC-HMMX model is correct with a balanced accuracy of 83.65%. This thus highlights the value of longitudinal monitoring for chronic disease management.(c) 2022 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier B.V. This is an open access article under the CC BY license ( http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ )

• Dokumententyp: Zeitschriftenartikel
• Fakultät: Betriebswirtschaft
• Themengebiete: 300 Sozialwissenschaften > 330 Wirtschaft
• ISSN: 0377-2217
• Sprache: Englisch