Sudden stop: When did firms anticipate the potential consequences of COVID-19?

Buchheim, Lukas; Krolage, Carla und Link, Sebastian (2022): Sudden stop: When did firms anticipate the potential consequences of COVID-19? In: German Economic Review, Bd. 23, Nr. 1: S. 79-119

Abstract

COVID-19 hit firms by surprise. In a high frequency, representative panel of German firms, the business outlook declined and business uncertainty increased only at the time when the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic led to domestic policy changes: The announcement of nation-wide school closures on March 13 was followed by the largest change in business perceptions by far. In contrast, the data provides no evidence for the relevance of other potential sources of information on business perceptions: Firms did not learn from foreign policy measures, even if they relied on inputs from China or Italy. The local, county-level spread of COVID-19 cases affected expectations and uncertainty, albeit to a much lesser extent than the domestic policy changes.

• Dokumententyp: Zeitschriftenartikel
• Fakultät: Volkswirtschaft
• Themengebiete: 300 Sozialwissenschaften > 330 Wirtschaft
• ISSN: 1465-6485
• Sprache: Englisch