A novel prediction score determining individual clinical outcome 3 months after juvenile stroke

Hoffmann, Verena S. ; Schönecker, Sonja ; Amin, Moustafa; Reidler, Paul ; Brauer, Anna; Kopczak, Anna ; Wunderlich, Silke ; Poli, Sven ; Althaus, Katharina ; Müller, Susanne ; Mansmann, Ulrich und Kellert, Lars (2024): A novel prediction score determining individual clinical outcome 3 months after juvenile stroke. (PREDICT-score). In: Journal of Neurology, Bd. 271, Nr. 9: S. 6238-6246

Abstract

Background: Juvenile strokes (< 55 years) account for about 15% of all ischemic strokes. Structured data on clinical outcome in those patients are sparse. Here, we aimed to fill this gap by systematically collecting relevant data and modeling a juvenile stroke prediction score for the 3-month functional outcome. Methods: We retrospectively integrated and analyzed clinical and outcome data of juvenile stroke and TIA patients treated at the LMU University Hospital, LMU Munich, Munich. Good outcome was defined as a modified Rankin Scale of 0–2 or return to baseline of function. We analyzed candidate predictors and developed a predictive model. Predictive abilities were inspected using Area Under the ROC curve (AUROC) and visual representation of the calibration. The model was validated internally. Results : 346 patients were included in the analysis. We observed a good outcome in n = 293 patients (84.7%). The prediction model for an unfavourable outcome had an AUROC of 89.1% (95% CI 83.3–93.1%). The model includes age NIHSS, ASPECTS, blood glucose and type of vessel occlusion as predictors for the individual patient outcome. Conclusions: Here, we introduce the highly accurate PREDICT-score for the 3-month outcome after juvenile stroke derived from clinical routine data. The PREDICT-score might be helpful in guiding individual patient decisions and designing future studies but needs further prospective validation which is already planned.

• Dokumententyp: Zeitschriftenartikel
• Fakultät: Medizin > Institut für Medizinische Informationsverarbeitung, Biometrie und Epidemiologie ; Medizin > Institut für Schlaganfall- und Demenzforschung (ISD) ; Medizin > Klinikum der LMU München > Neurologische Klinik und Poliklinik mit Friedrich-Baur-Institut ; Medizin > Klinikum der LMU München > Klinik und Poliklinik für Radiologie
• Themengebiete: 600 Technik, Medizin, angewandte Wissenschaften > 610 Medizin und Gesundheit
• ISSN: 0340-5354
• Sprache: Englisch