Europe-Wide Spatial Models for Ultrafine Particles Based on Mobile Monitoring

Shen, Youchen ; Kerckhoffs, Jules ; Stafoggia, Massimo; Nobile, Federica; Cattani, Giorgio ; Peters, Annette ; Wolf, Kathrin; Cyrys, Josef; Kecorius, Simonas; Tonne, Cathryn ; Janc, Magdalena; Polanska, Kinga; Eeftens, Marloes; Imboden, Medea; Flückiger, Benjamin; Dimakopoulou, Konstantina; Katsouyanni, Klea; Samoli, Evangelia; Hoogh, Kees de ; Hoek, Gerard und Vermeulen, Roel (2025): Europe-Wide Spatial Models for Ultrafine Particles Based on Mobile Monitoring. In: Environmental Science & Technology, Bd. 59, Nr. 50: S. 27033-27043

Abstract

There is an unmet need for large-scale multicenter studies on health effects of long-term exposure to ultrafine particles (UFPs). Such studies have been hampered by the lack of high-resolution models covering large geographical areas. This study aims to develop and evaluate Europe-wide UFP models using mobile measurements. Between 2018 and 2024, we conducted UFP mobile measurement campaigns in nine European areas. We developed both Europe-wide pooled and area-specific models of UFP concentrations at a 25 m spatial scale, using supervised linear regression with a deconvolution approach. The performance of our pooled models, with and without deconvolution, was similar, exhibiting an overall R2 of 0.33-0.36, 0.34-0.35 in 5-fold cross-validation (CV), and 0.29 in leave-one-area-out CV. When evaluated against external independent, longer term off-road measurements collected from seven areas and countries, our deconvoluted model effectively captured UFP variability in both urban and rural settings, with R2 ranging from 0.25 to 0.70, modestly better than the non-deconvoluted model (R2 = 0.23-0.67) and superior to area-specific models (R2 = 0.15-0.42). These findings underscore the ability of our pooled deconvoluted Europe-wide UFP model to capture the variability of UFP across diverse environments. The UFP model estimates will facilitate large-scale multicenter studies to investigate the long-term health effects of UFP exposure.

• Dokumententyp: Zeitschriftenartikel
• Fakultät: Medizin > Institut für Medizinische Informationsverarbeitung, Biometrie und Epidemiologie
• Themengebiete: 600 Technik, Medizin, angewandte Wissenschaften > 610 Medizin und Gesundheit
• ISSN: 0013-936X
• Sprache: Englisch