Runoff modelling in glacierized Central Asian catchments for present-day and future climate

Hagg, Wilfried; Braun, L. N.; Weber, M. und Becht, M. (2006): Runoff modelling in glacierized Central Asian catchments for present-day and future climate. In: Nordic Hydrology, Bd. 37, Nr. 2: S. 93-105

Abstract

A conceptual precipitation–runoff model was applied in five glacierized catchments in Central Asia. The model, which was first developed and applied in the Alps, works on a daily time step and yields good results in the more continental climate of the Tien Shan mountains for present-day climate conditions. Runoff scenarios for different climates (doubling of CO2) and glacierization conditions predict an increased flood risk as a first stage and a more complex picture after a complete glacier loss: a higher discharge during spring due to an earlier and more intense snowmelt is followed by a water deficiency in hot and dry summer periods. This unfavourable seasonal redistribution of the water supply has dramatic consequences for the Central Asian lowlands, which depend to a high degree on the glacier melt water for irrigation and already nowadays suffer from water shortages.

• Dokumententyp: Zeitschriftenartikel
• Keywords: Central Asia; climate change; glacier hydrology; runoff modelling
• Fakultät: Geowissenschaften > Department für Geographie > Geographie und Landschaftsökologie
• Themengebiete: 900 Geschichte und Geografie > 910 Geografie, Reisen
• ISSN: 0029-1277
• Sprache: Englisch