Runoff modelling in glacierized Central Asian catchments for present-day and future climate

Hagg, Wilfried; Braun, L. N.; Weber, M.; Becht, M. (2006): Runoff modelling in glacierized Central Asian catchments for present-day and future climate. In: Nordic Hydrology, Vol. 37, No. 2: pp. 93-105

Abstract

A conceptual precipitation–runoff model was applied in five glacierized catchments in Central Asia. The model, which was first developed and applied in the Alps, works on a daily time step and yields good results in the more continental climate of the Tien Shan mountains for present-day climate conditions. Runoff scenarios for different climates (doubling of CO2) and glacierization conditions predict an increased flood risk as a first stage and a more complex picture after a complete glacier loss: a higher discharge during spring due to an earlier and more intense snowmelt is followed by a water deficiency in hot and dry summer periods. This unfavourable seasonal redistribution of the water supply has dramatic consequences for the Central Asian lowlands, which depend to a high degree on the glacier melt water for irrigation and already nowadays suffer from water shortages.

• Item Type: Journal article
• Keywords: Central Asia; climate change; glacier hydrology; runoff modelling
• Faculties: Geosciences > Department of Geography > Geography and Landscape Ecology
• Subjects: 900 History and geography > 910 Geography and travel
• ISSN: 0029-1277
• Language: English