Logo Logo
Hilfe
Hilfe
Switch Language to English

Hagg, Wilfried; Braun, L. N.; Weber, M. und Becht, M. (2006): Runoff modelling in glacierized Central Asian catchments for present-day and future climate. In: Nordic Hydrology, Bd. 37, Nr. 2: S. 93-105 [PDF, 613kB]

[thumbnail of Hagg_et_al_06_publ.pdf]
Vorschau
Akzeptierte Version
Download (613kB)

Abstract

A conceptual precipitation–runoff model was applied in five glacierized catchments in Central Asia. The model, which was first developed and applied in the Alps, works on a daily time step and yields good results in the more continental climate of the Tien Shan mountains for present-day climate conditions. Runoff scenarios for different climates (doubling of CO2) and glacierization conditions predict an increased flood risk as a first stage and a more complex picture after a complete glacier loss: a higher discharge during spring due to an earlier and more intense snowmelt is followed by a water deficiency in hot and dry summer periods. This unfavourable seasonal redistribution of the water supply has dramatic consequences for the Central Asian lowlands, which depend to a high degree on the glacier melt water for irrigation and already nowadays suffer from water shortages.

Dokument bearbeiten Dokument bearbeiten