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Geil, Peter and Rotte, Ralph (1996): International Interventionism 1970-1989: A Count Data Approach. Collaborative Research Center 386, Discussion Paper 21 [PDF, 213kB]


Due to progress in statistical methods and improved data processing capabilities, count data modelling has become increasingly popular in the social sciences. In empirical international relations and international conflict research, however, the use of event count models has been largely restricted to the application of the simple Poisson approach so far. This article outlines the methodological weaknesses of the model and presents some improvements which are applied to the problem of international interventionism. The cross-sectional data set used covers the behaviour of states during the period from 1970 to 1989, and thus avoids some theoretical problems of the standard long-term dyadic approach. The main result of the analysis is the empirical irrelevance of idealist conceptions claiming pacifying effects of democratization or fostering of economic prosperity.

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