
Abstract
This paper contributes to the empirical foundation of prospect theory in real-life international relations by testing two of its major implications in the field of military conflict. Using duration analysis for a data set of twentieth century battles, it is shown how the experience of losses contributes positively to the preparedness to continue fighting, up to a point where casualties clearly outweigh any direct utility drawn from ordinary expected-utility theory. Moreover, the empirical results also indicate that the relative position compared to the opponent's is clearly less important for the decision whether to stop a battle or not than the change of one's own position compared to the beginning of the fight.
Item Type: | Paper |
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Faculties: | Mathematics, Computer Science and Statistics > Statistics > Collaborative Research Center 386 Special Research Fields > Special Research Field 386 |
Subjects: | 500 Science > 510 Mathematics |
URN: | urn:nbn:de:bvb:19-epub-1489-4 |
Language: | English |
Item ID: | 1489 |
Date Deposited: | 04. Apr 2007 |
Last Modified: | 04. Nov 2020, 12:45 |