Ulm, Kurt; Schmidt, Georg; Barthel, Petra; Schneider, Raphael; Pashova, Victoria; Rolnitzky, Linda; Bigger Jr., J. Thomas; Schömig, Albert
A Statistical Model for Risk Stratification on the Basis of Left Ventricular Ejection Fraction and Heart-Rate Turbulence.
Collaborative Research Center 386, Discussion Paper 198
The MPIP data set was used to obtain a model for mortality risk stratification of acute myocardial infarction patients. The predictors heart rate turbulence (HRT) and left-ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) were employed. HRT was a categorical variable of three levels; LVEF was continuous and its influence on the relative risk was explained by the natural logarithm function (found using fractional polynomials). Cox - PH model with HRT and lnLVEF was constructed and used for risk stratification. The model can be used to divide the patients into two or more groups according to mortality risk. It also describes the relationship between risk and predictors by a (continuous) function, which allows the calculation of individual mortality risk.