Abstract
Climate change has a large impact on water resources and thus on hydropower. Hydroelectric power generation is closely linked to the regional hydrological situation of a watershed and reacts sensitively to changes in water quantity and seasonality. The development of hydroelectric power generation in the Upper Danube basin was modelled for two future decades, namely 2021-2030 and 2051-2060, using a special hydropower module coupled with the physically-based hydrological model PROMET. To cover a possible range of uncertainties, 16 climate scenarios were taken as meteorological drivers which were defined from different ensemble outputs of a stochastic climate generator, based on the IPCC-SRES-A1B emission scenario and four regional climate trends. Depending on the trends, the results show a slight to severe decline in hydroelectric power generation. Whilst the mean summer values indicate a decrease, the mean winter values display an increase. To show past and future regional differences within the Upper Danube basin, three hydropower plants at individual locations were selected. Inter-annual differences originate predominately from unequal contributions of the runoff compartments rain, snow-and ice-melt.
| Dokumententyp: | Zeitschriftenartikel |
|---|---|
| Publikationsform: | Publisher's Version |
| Keywords: | climate change; PROMET; hydroelectric power generation; runoff components; GLOWA-Danube; Upper Danube basin |
| Fakultät: | Geowissenschaften > Department für Geographie > Geographie und geographische Fernerkundung |
| Themengebiete: | 500 Naturwissenschaften und Mathematik > 550 Geowissenschaften, Geologie |
| URN: | urn:nbn:de:bvb:19-epub-15982-9 |
| ISSN: | 1996-1073 |
| Ort: | POSTFACH, CH-4005 BASEL, SWITZERLAND |
| Sprache: | Englisch |
| Dokumenten ID: | 15982 |
| Datum der Veröffentlichung auf Open Access LMU: | 09. Aug. 2013 07:34 |
| Letzte Änderungen: | 04. Nov. 2020 12:57 |
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