Bayesian Poisson Log-Bilinear Mortality Projections

Czado, Claudia; Delwarde, A. und Denuit, M. (2004): Bayesian Poisson Log-Bilinear Mortality Projections. Sonderforschungsbereich 386, Discussion Paper 398

Abstract

Mortality projections are major concerns for public policy, social security and private insurance. This paper implements a Bayesian log-bilinear Poisson regression model to forecast mortality. Computations are carried out using Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods in which the degree of smoothing is learnt from the data. Comparisons are made with the approach proposed by Brouhns, Denuit & Vermunt (2002a,b), as well as with the original model of Lee & Carter (1992).

• Dokumententyp: Paper
• Keywords: projected lifetables, expected remaining lifetimes, Poisson regression, MCMC
• Fakultät: Mathematik, Informatik und Statistik > Statistik > Sonderforschungsbereich 386 ; Sonderforschungsbereiche > Sonderforschungsbereich 386
• Themengebiete: 500 Naturwissenschaften und Mathematik > 510 Mathematik
• Sprache: Englisch