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Berkel, Barbara; Börsch-Supan, Axel H.; Ludwig, Alexander; Winter, Joachim (2004): Sind die Probleme der Bevölkerungsalterung durch eine höhere Geburtenrate lösbar? In: Perspektiven der Wirtschaftspolitik, Vol. 5, Nr. 1: S. 71-90
Volltext auf 'Open Access LMU' nicht verfügbar.

Abstract

Can the aging problem be solved by a higher birth rate? While the popular notion - \"if we have too many elderly we need more children in order to compensate for this\" - seems plausible, the results of economic theory are ambiguous at best. This paper employs a quantitative macroeconomic simulation model for Germany and leads to a more subtle view, stressing the importance of human capital formation for long-term economic growth in this context. Moreover, it takes a very long transitional period until a higher fertility rate results in a larger and better-educated labour force that contributes to social security. Therefore, reforms of the social security system still have the highest priority because this is the only way to solve the problems of an aging baby-boomer generation in the short and medium term - meaning the time until the baby boomers will retire.