Logo Logo
Switch Language to German
Flaig, Gebhard (2003): Seasonal and Cyclical Properties of Ifo Business Test Variables. In: Jahrbücher für Nationalökonomie und Statistik, Vol. 223, No. 5: pp. 556-570
Full text not available from 'Open Access LMU'.


In this paper, an Unobserved Components Model is used to decompose the balances of Ifo Business survey data into the cyclical, the seasonal and the irregular components, as well as the working day effect. The empirical results show that the total cycle consists of three subcycles with about 3,5 and 11 years. Each subcycle of the assessment variable is \"similar\" to the corresponding subcycle of the expectations variable. The seasonal pattern is changing over time and the working day effect is significant for the assessment of the current business situation and for the Ifo Business Climate, but not for the expectation series.