Abstract
Using a time-varying parameter vector autoregression (TVP-VAR) with a new sign restriction framework, we study the changing effectiveness of the Bank of Japan's Quantitative Easing policies over time. We analyse the Zero-Interest Rate Policy from 1999 to 2000, the Quantitative Easing Policy from 2001 to 2006, and most recently the ‘Abenomics' monetary policy easing strategy. Our results indicate that there are important differences concerning the effects of Quantitative Easing over time. We find a stronger and longer lasting positive influence of QE shocks on real GDP and CPI especially since 2013. This might reflect the influence of the ‘Abenomics' program.
Dokumententyp: | Paper |
---|---|
Keywords: | Bayesian time-varying parameter VAR, monetary policy, quantitative easing, zero lower bound |
Fakultät: | Volkswirtschaft
Volkswirtschaft > Munich Discussion Papers in Economics |
Themengebiete: | 300 Sozialwissenschaften > 330 Wirtschaft |
JEL Classification: | C30, E44, E52, F41 |
URN: | urn:nbn:de:bvb:19-epub-21087-7 |
Sprache: | Englisch |
Dokumenten ID: | 21087 |
Datum der Veröffentlichung auf Open Access LMU: | 10. Jul. 2014, 08:32 |
Letzte Änderungen: | 06. Nov. 2020, 13:02 |
Literaturliste: | Bernanke, B., Reinhart, V., and Sack, B. 2004. Monetary Policy Alternatives at the Zero Bound: An Empirical Assessment. Brookings papers on economic activity 2004:1-100. Bernanke, B. S. and Reinhart, V. R. 2004. Conducting Monetary Policy at Very Low Short-Term Interest Rates. American Economic Review pp. 85-90. Canova, F. and Ciccarelli, M. 2009. Estimating Multicountry VAR Models. International Economic Review 50:929-959. Eggertsson, G. B. 2011. What Fiscal Policy is Efective at Zero Interest Rates?, pp. 59-112. In NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2010, Volume 25. University of Chicago Press. Franta, M. 2011. Identification of Monetary Policy Shocks in Japan using Sign Restrictions within the TVP-VAR Framework. Technical report, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan. Fujiwara, I. 2006. Evaluating Monetary Policy when Nominal Interest Rates are Almost Zero. Journal of the Japanese and International Economies 20:434-453. Geweke, J. 1999. Using Simulation Methods for Bayesian Econometric Models: Inference, Development, and Communication. Econometric Reviews 18:1-73. Hausman, J. K. and Wieland, J. F. 2014. Abenomics: Preliminary Analysis and Outlook. Technical report, mimeo. Hayashi, F. and Koeda, J. 2014. Exiting from QE. CARF F-Series CARF-F-322, Center for Advanced Research in Finance, Faculty of Economics, The University of Tokyo 12. Iwata, S. and Wu, S. 2006. Estimating Monetary Policy Effects when Interest Rates are Close to Zero. Journal of Monetary Economics 53:1395-1408. Jinushi, T., Kuroki, Y., and Miyao, R. 2000. Monetary Policy in Japan since the late 1980s: Delayed Policy Actions and some Explanations. Japan's Financial Crisis and Its Parallels to US Experience pp. 115-48. Kamada, K. and Sugo, T. 2006. Evaluating Japanese Monetary Policy under the Nonnegativity Constraint on Nominal Short-Term Interest Rates. The Bank of Japan Working Paper Series p. 17. Kimura, T., Kobayashi, H., Muranaga, J., and Ugai, H. 2003. The Effect of the Increase in the Monetary Base of Japan's Economy at Zero Interest Rates: An Empirical Analysis, pp. 276-312. In B. for International Settlements (ed.), Monetary policy in a changing environment, volume 19 of BIS Papers chapters. Bank for International Settlements. Kimura, T. and Nakajima, J. 2013. Identifying Conventional and Unconventional Monetary Policy Shocks: A Latent Threshold Approach. Bank of Japan. Kirchner, M., Cimadomo, J., and Hauptmeier, S. 2010. Transmission of Government Spending Shocks in the Euro Area: Time Variation and Driving Forces. Tinbergen Institute. Krugman, P. 1998. It's Baaack: Japan's Slump and the Return of the Liquidity Trap. Brookings Papers on Economic Activity 2:137-205. Krugman, P. 2000. Thinking about the Liquidity Trap. Journal of the Japanese and International Economies 14:221-237. Mikitani, R. and Posen, A. S. 2000. Japan's Financial Crisis and its Parallels to US Experience, volume 13. Peterson Institute. Miyao, R. 2002. The E_ects of Monetary Policy in Japan. Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking 34:376-392. Nakajima, J. 2011. Time-Varying Parameter VAR Model with Stochastic Volatility: An Overview of Methodology and Empirical Applications. Technical report, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan. Nakajima, J. and Ginko, N. 2011. Monetary Policy Transmission under Zero Interest Rates: An Extended Time-Varying Parameter Vector Autoregression Approach. Technical report, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan. Nakajima, J., Kasuya, M., and Watanabe, T. 2011. Bayesian Analysis of Time-Varying Parameter Vector Autoregressive Model for the Japanese Economy and Monetary Policy. Journal of the Japanese and International Economies 25:225-245. Nakajima, J. and West, M. 2013. Bayesian Analysis of Latent Threshold Dynamic Models. Journal of Business & Economic Statistics 31:151-164. Peersman, G. and Straub, R. 2006. Putting the New Keynesian Model to a Test. IMF Working Paper Series 6. Primiceri, G. 2005. Time Varying Structural Vector Autoregressions and Monetary Policy. Review of Economic Studies 72:821-852. Schenkelberg, H. and Watzka, S. 2013. Real Effects of Quantitative Easing at the Zero Lower Bound: Structural VAR-based Evidence from Japan. Journal of International Money and Finance . Sims, C., Stock, J., and Watson, M. 1990. Inference in Linear Time Series Models with Some Unit Roots. Econometrica: Journal of the Econometric Society pp. 113-144. Ueda, K. 2012. The Effectiveness of Non-Traditional Monetary Policy Measures: The Case of the Bank of Japan. Japanese Economic Review 63:1-22. Ugai, H. 2007. E_ects of the Quantitative Easing Policy: A Survey of Empirical Analyses. Monetary and Economic Studies-Bank of Japan 25:1. Uhlig, H. 2005. What are the Effects of Monetary Policy on Output? Results from an Agnostic Identification Procedure. Journal of Monetary Economics 52:381-419. |