The No Miracles Argument without the Base Rate Fallacy

Dawid, Richard und Hartmann, Stephan (Januar 2016): The No Miracles Argument without the Base Rate Fallacy.

Abstract

According to an argument by Colin Howson, the no-miracles argument is contingent on committing the base-rate fallacy and is therefore bound to fail. We demonstrate that Howson's argument only applies to one of two versions of the no-miracles argument. The other, more considerate version is not adequately reconstructed in Howson's approach and thus remains unaffected by his line of reasoning. We provide a Bayesian reconstruction of this version of the no-miracles argument and show that it is valid. We then proceed to discuss a number of aspects of NMA on that basis.

• Dokumententyp: Zeitschriftenartikel
• Keywords: Bayesianism, no miracles argument, realism, base rate fallacy
• Fakultät: Philosophie, Wissenschaftstheorie und Religionswissenschaft > Munich Center for Mathematical Philosophy (MCMP) ; Philosophie, Wissenschaftstheorie und Religionswissenschaft > Munich Center for Mathematical Philosophy (MCMP) > Philosophy of Science
• Themengebiete: 100 Philosophie und Psychologie > 100 Philosophie
• Sprache: Englisch