| Dawid, Richard; Hartmann, Stephan (January 2016): The No Miracles Argument without the Base Rate Fallacy. |
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External fulltext: http://philsci-archive.pitt.edu/11883/
Abstract
According to an argument by Colin Howson, the no-miracles argument is contingent on committing the base-rate fallacy and is therefore bound to fail. We demonstrate that Howson's argument only applies to one of two versions of the no-miracles argument. The other, more considerate version is not adequately reconstructed in Howson's approach and thus remains unaffected by his line of reasoning. We provide a Bayesian reconstruction of this version of the no-miracles argument and show that it is valid. We then proceed to discuss a number of aspects of NMA on that basis.
| Item Type: | Journal article |
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| Form of publication: | Preprint |
| Keywords: | Bayesianism, no miracles argument, realism, base rate fallacy |
| Faculties: | Philosophy, Philosophy of Science and Religious Science > Munich Center for Mathematical Philosophy (MCMP) Philosophy, Philosophy of Science and Religious Science > Munich Center for Mathematical Philosophy (MCMP) > Philosophy of Science |
| Subjects: | 100 Philosophy and Psychology > 100 Philosophy |
| URN: | urn:nbn:de:bvb:19-epub-28987-8 |
| Language: | English |
| ID Code: | 28987 |
| Deposited On: | 21. Jul 2016 06:46 |
| Last Modified: | 04. Nov 2020 13:07 |
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