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Cervellati, Matteo; Sunde, Uwe; Valmori, Simona (2017): Pathogens, Weather Shocks and Civil Conflicts. In: Economic Journal, Vol. 127, No. 607: pp. 2581-2616
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Abstract

This article documents a statistically strong and quantitatively relevant effect of high exposure to infectious diseases on the risk of civil conflicts. The analysis exploits data on the presence and endemicity of multi-host vector-transmitted pathogens in a country, which is closely related to geo-climatic conditions due to the specific features of these pathogens. Exploiting within-country variation over time shows that this effect of pathogen exposure is significantly amplified by weather shocks. The results indicate health shocks and the outbreak of epidemics as a potential channel, while we find no evidence that the effect works through alternative channels like income, population dynamics, or institutions.