Conditionals, Counterfactuals, and Rational Reasoning: An Experimental Study on Basic Principles

Pfeifer, Niki und Tulkki, Leena (2017): Conditionals, Counterfactuals, and Rational Reasoning: An Experimental Study on Basic Principles. In: Minds and Machines, Bd. 27, Nr. 1: S. 119-165

Abstract

We present a unified approach for investigating rational reasoning about basic argument forms involving indicative conditionals, counterfactuals, and basic quantified statements within coherence-based probability logic. After introducing the rationality framework, we present an interactive view on the relation between normative and empirical work. Then, we report a new experiment which shows that people interpret indicative conditionals and counterfactuals by coherent conditional probability assertions and negate conditionals by negating their consequents. The data support the conditional probability interpretation of conditionals and the narrow-scope reading of the negation of conditionals. Finally, we argue that coherent conditional probabilities are important for probabilistic analyses of conditionals, nonmonotonic reasoning, quantified statements, and paradoxes.

• Dokumententyp: Zeitschriftenartikel
• Fakultät: Philosophie, Wissenschaftstheorie und Religionswissenschaft > Munich Center for Mathematical Philosophy (MCMP)
• Themengebiete: 100 Philosophie und Psychologie > 100 Philosophie ; 500 Naturwissenschaften und Mathematik > 510 Mathematik
• ISSN: 0924-6495
• Sprache: Englisch