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Mahaki, Behzad; Mehrabi, Yadollah; Kavousi, Amir and Schmid, Volker J. ORCID logoORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2195-8130 (1. June 2018): Joint Spatio-temporal Shared Component Model with an Application in Iran Cancer Data. In: Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention, Vol. 19, No. 6: pp. 1553-1560

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Background: Among the proposals for joint disease mapping, the shared component model has become morepopular. Another advance to strengthen inference of disease data is the extension of purely spatial models to includetime aspect. We aim to combine the idea of multivariate shared components with spatio-temporal modelling in a jointdisease mapping model and apply it for incidence rates of seven prevalent cancers in Iran which together account forapproximately 50 of all cancers. Methods: In the proposed model, each component is shared by different subsetsof diseases, spatial and temporal trends are considered for each component, and the relative weight of these trends foreach component for each relevant disease can be estimated. Results: For esophagus and stomach cancers the Northernprovinces was the area of high risk. For colorectal cancer Gilan, Semnan, Fars, Isfahan, Yazd and East-Azerbaijanwere the highest risk provinces. For bladder and lung cancer, the northwest were the highest risk area. For prostate andbreast cancers, Isfahan, Yazd, Fars, Tehran, Semnan, Mazandaran and Khorasane-Razavi were the highest risk part.The smoking component, shared by esophagus, stomach, bladder and lung, had more effect in Gilan, Mazandaran,Chaharmahal and Bakhtiari, Kohgilouyeh and Boyerahmad, Ardebil and Tehran provinces, in turn. For overweightand obesity component, shared by esophagus, colorectal, prostate and breast cancers the largest effect was found forTehran, Khorasane-Razavi, Semnan, Yazd, Isfahan, Fars, Mazandaran and Gilan, in turn. For low physical activitycomponent, shared by colorectal and breast cancers North-Khorasan, Ardebil, Golestan, Ilam, Khorasane-Razavi andSouth-Khorasan had the largest effects, in turn. The smoking component is significantly more important for stomachthan for esophagus, bladder and lung. The overweight and obesity had significantly more effect for colorectal than ofesophagus cancer. Conclusions: The presented model is a valuable model to model geographical and temporal variationamong diseases and has some interesting potential features and benefits over other joint models.

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