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Cho, Iksung; Al'Aref, Subhi J.; Berger, Adam; Hartaigh, Briain O.; Gransar, Heidi; Valenti, Valentina; Lin, Fay Y.; Achenbach, Stephan; Berman, Daniel S.; Budoff, Matthew J.; Callister, Tracy Q.; Al-Mallah, Mouaz H.; Cademartiri, Filippo; Chinnaiyan, Kavitha; Chow, Benjamin J. W.; DeLago, Augustin; Villines, Todd C.; Hadamitzky, Martin; Hausleiter, Jörg; Leipsic, Jonathon; Shaw, Leslee J.; Kaufmann, Philipp A.; Feuchtner, Gudrun; Kim, Yong-Jin; Maffei, Erica; Raff, Gilbert; Pontone, Gianluca; Andreini, Daniele; Marques, Hugo; Rubinshtein, Ronen; Chang, Hyuk-Jae and Min, James K. (2018): Prognostic value of coronary computed tomographic angiography findings in asymptomatic individuals: a 6-year follow-up from the prospective multicentre international CONFIRM study. In: European Heart Journal, Vol. 39, No. 11: pp. 934-941

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Aim The long-term prognostic benefit of coronary computed tomographic angiography (CCTA) findings of coronary artery disease (CAD) in asymptomatic populations is unknown. Methods and results From the prospective multicentre international CONFIRM long-term study, we evaluated asymptomatic subjects without known CAD who underwent both coronary artery calcium scoring (CACS) and CCTA (n = 1226). Coronary computed tomographic angiography findings included the severity of coronary artery stenosis, plaque composition, and coronary segment location. Using the C-statistic and likelihood ratio tests, we evaluated the incremental prognostic utility of CCTA findings over a base model that included a panel of traditional risk factors (RFs) as well as CACS to predict long-term all-cause mortality. During a mean follow-up of 5.9 +/- 1.2 years, 78 deaths occurred. Compared with the traditional RF alone (C-statistic 0.64), CCTA findings including coronary stenosis severity, plaque composition, and coronary segment location demonstrated improved incremental prognostic utility beyond traditional RF alone (C-statistics range 0.71-0.73, all P < 0.05;incremental chi(2) range 20.7-25.5, all P < 0.001). However, no added prognostic benefit was offered by CCTA findings when added to a base model containing both traditional RF and CACS (C-statistics P > 0.05, for all). Conclusions Coronary computed tomographic angiography improved prognostication of 6-year all-cause mortality beyond a set of conventional RF alone, although, no further incremental value was offered by CCTA when CCTA findings were added to a model incorporating RF and CACS.

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