Abstract
Varied evidence confirms more strongly than less varied evidence, ceteris paribus. This epistemological Variety of Evidence Thesis enjoys widespread intuitive support. We put forward a novel explication of one notion of varied evidence and the Variety of Evidence Thesis within Bayesian models of scientific inference by appealing to measures of entropy. Our explication of the Variety of Evidence Thesis holds in many of our models which also pronounce on disconfirmatory and discordant evidence. We argue that our models pronounce rightly. Against a backdrop of failures of the Variety of Evidence Thesis, the intuitive case for the Variety of Evidence Thesis emerges strengthened. Our models do however not support the general case for the thesis since our explication of it fails to hold in certain cases. The parameter space of this failure is explored and an explanation for the failure is offered.
Item Type: | Journal article |
---|---|
EU Funded Grant Agreement Number: | 639276 |
EU Projects: | Horizon 2020 > ERC Grants > ERC Starting Grant > ERC Grant 639276: PhilPharm - Philosophy of Pharmacology: Safety, Statistical Standards and Evidence Amalgamation |
Faculties: | Philosophy, Philosophy of Science and Religious Science > Munich Center for Mathematical Philosophy (MCMP) > Philosophy of Science |
Subjects: | 100 Philosophy and Psychology > 100 Philosophy 100 Philosophy and Psychology > 120 Epistemology |
ISSN: | 0165-0106 |
Language: | English |
Item ID: | 69268 |
Date Deposited: | 23. Oct 2019, 14:17 |
Last Modified: | 04. Nov 2020, 13:51 |
References: | Borm, G. F., Lemmers, O., Fransen, J., & Donders, R. (2009). The evidence provided by a single trial is less reliable than its statistical analysis suggests. Journal of Clinical Epidemiology, 62(7), 711–715. Bovens, L., & Hartmann, S. (2002). Bayesian networks and the problem of unreliable instruments. Philosophy of Science, 69(1), 29–72. Bovens, L., & Hartmann, S. (2003). Bayesian epistemology. Oxford: Oxford University Press. Carnap, R. (1962). Logical foundations of probability (2nd ed.). Chicago: University of Chicago Press. Claveau, F. (2011). Evidential variety as a source of credibility for causal inference: Beyond sharp designs and structural models. Journal of Economic Methodology, 18(3), 233–253. Claveau, F. (2013). The independence condition in the variety-of-evidence thesis. Philosophy of Science, 80(1), 94–118. Claveau, F., & Grenier, O. (2018). The variety-of-evidence thesis: A Bayesian exploration of its surprising failures. Synthese. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11229-017-1607-5. Colombo, M., Gervais, R., & Sprenger, J. (2017). Introduction: Objectivity in science. Synthese, 194(12), 4641–4642. Crupi, V., Nelson, J., Meder, B., Cevolani, G., & Tentori, K. (2019). Generalized information theory meets human cognition: Introducing a unified framework to model uncertainty and information search. http://philsci-archive.pitt.edu/14436/. Csiszár, I. (2008). Axiomatic characterizations of information measures. Entropy, 10(3), 261–273. Dawid, R., Hartmann, S., & Sprenger, J. (2015). The no alternatives argument. British Journal for the Philosophy of Science, 66(1), 213–234. Earman, J. (1992). Bayes or bust? Cambridge, MA: MIT Press. Fitelson, B. (1996). Wayne, Horwich, and evidential diversity. Philosophy of Science, 63(4), 652–660. Fitelson, B. (2001). A bayesian account of independent evidence with applications. Philosophy of Science, 68(3), S123–S140. Franklin, A., & Howson, C. (1984). Why do scientists prefer to vary their experiments? Studies in History and Philosophy of Science Part A, 15(1), 51–62. Glymour, C. (1980). Theory and evidence. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press. Hartmann, S., & Bovens, L. (2001). The Variety-of-Evidence Thesis and the reliability of instruments: A Bayesian-network approach. PhilSci-Archive, last modified: 07 Oct 2010 15:10. Hempel, C. (1966). Philosophy of natural science. Englewood Cliffs, NJ: Prentice Hall.Google Scholar Horwich, P. (1982). Probability and evidence. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. Horwich, P. (1998). Wittgensteinian Bayesianism. In M. Curd & J. A. Cover (Eds.), Philosophy of science: The central issues (pp. 607–624). New York: W. W. Norton & Company. Howson, C., & Urbach, P. (2006). Scientific reasoning (3rd ed.). Chicago: Open Court. Hüffmeier, J., Mazei, J., & Schultze, T. (2016). Reconceptualizing replication as a sequence of different studies: A replication typology. Journal of Experimental Social Psychology, 66, 81–92. Keynes, J. M. (1921). A treatise on probability. New York: MacMillan. Kuorikoski, J., & Marchionni, C. (2016). Evidential diversity and the triangulation of phenomena. Philosophy of Science, 83(2), 227–247. Landes, J. (2018). Varied evidence and the elimination of hypotheses. Thought (submitted). Landes, J., & Osimani, B. (2018). Varieties of error and varieties of evidence. Philosophy of Science (submitted). Landes, J., Osimani, B., & Poellinger, R. (2018). Epistemology of causal inference in pharmacology. European Journal for Philosophy of Science, 8(1), 3–49. https://doi.org/10.1007/s13194-017-0169-1. Landes, J., & Williamson, J. (2013). Objective Bayesianism and the maximum entropy principle. Entropy, 15(9), 3528–3591. Lloyd, E. A. (2015). Model robustness as a confirmatory virtue: The case of climate science. Studies in History and Philosophy of Science Part A, 49, 58–68. Maxim, L. D., Niebo, R., & Utell, M. J. (2014). Screening tests: A review with examples. Inhalation Toxicology, 26(13), 811–828. Meehl, P. E. (1990). Appraising and amending theories: The strategy of Lakatosian defense and two principles that warrant it. Psychological Inquiry, 1(2), 108–141. Myrvold, W. C. (1996). Bayesianism and diverse evidence: A reply to Andrew Wayne. Philosophy of Science, 63(4), 661. Parkkinen, V.-P. (2016). Robustness and evidence of mechanisms in early experimental atherosclerosis research. Studies in History and Philosophy of Science Part C: Studies in History and Philosophy of Biological and Biomedical Sciences, 60, 44–55. Pearl, J. (2009). Causality models, reasoning and inference (2nd edn.). Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. Perović, S., Radovanović, S., Sikimić, V., & Berber, A. (2016). Optimal research team composition: Data envelopment analysis of Fermilab experiments. Scientometrics, 108(1), 83–111. Perrin, J. (1924). Les Atomes. Libraire: Félix Alcan. Poincaré, H. (1963). Mathematics and science: Last essays. New York: Dover. Schupbach, J. N. (2015). Robustness, diversity of evidence, and probabilistic independence (pp. 305–316). Berlin: Springer. Schupbach, J. N. (2018). Robustness analysis as explanatory reasoning. British Journal for the Philosophy of Science, 69(1), 275–300. Shannon, C. (1948). A mathematical theory of communication. The Bell System Technical Journal, 27, 379–423. Steel, D. (1996). Bayesianism and the value of diverse evidence. Philosophy of Science, 63(4), 666–674. Stegenga, J., & Menon, T. (2017). Robustness and independent evidence. Philosophy of Science, 84(3), 414–435. Tuomisto, H. (2010). A consistent terminology for quantifying species diversity? Yes, it does exist. Oecologia, 164(4), 853–860. Vezér, M. A. (2017). Variety-of-evidence reasoning about the distant past. European Journal for Philosophy of Science, 7(2), 257–265. Wayne, A. (1995). Bayesianism and diverse evidence. Philosophy of Science, 62(1), 111–121. |