Monocytic HLA-DR expression for prediction of anastomotic leak after colorectal surgery

Sint, Alena; Lutz, Rebecca; Aßenmacher, Matthias; Küchenhoff, Helmut ; Kühn, Florian; Faist, Eugen; Bazhin, Alexandr V. ; Rentsch, Markus; Werner, Jens und Schiergens, Tobias S. (2019): Monocytic HLA-DR expression for prediction of anastomotic leak after colorectal surgery. In: Journal of the American College of Surgeons, Bd. 229, Nr. 2: S. 200-209

Abstract

Background: Earlier detection of anastomotic leakage (AL) after colorectal procedures could minimize the detrimental clinical impact of AL and thereby reduce morbidity and mortality.

Study Design: We conducted a prospective study with assessment of the diagnostic accuracy of monocytic HLA-DR (mHLA-DR) expression compared with WBCs, C-reactive protein (CRP), and procalcitonin (PCT) in predicting AL in patients undergoing elective colorectal operation with anastomosis.

Results: Comparison of the blood marker values on postoperative day (POD) 4 revealed significant differences for all markers, but the difference for mHLA-DR was highly significant (15% expression of monocytes in AL patients vs 34% in patients without AL; p = 0.001). Together with WBC (p = 0.026), mHLA-DR expression was the only test to show significance on day 3 (14% vs 31%; p < 0.001). Receiver operating characteristic analysis revealed that mHLA-DR expression had superior diagnostic accuracy compared with all other diagnostic markers both on POD 3 (mHLA-DR area under the curve [AUC] 0.928; WBC AUC 0.734; CRP AUC 0.707; PCT AUC 0.672) and POD 4 (mHLA-DR AUC 0.887; WBC AUC 0.738; CRP AUC 0.709; PCT AUC 0.696). Monocytic HLA-DR had a negative predictive value of at least 94% on PODs 3 and 4, as well as specificity and positive predictive values of 100% at a threshold of 23% on POD 3 and 24% on POD 4, respectively.

Conclusions: Expression of mHLA-DR appears to be a more accurate predictor for AL after colorectal operation compared with WBC, CRP, and PCT. It represents a promising test to precisely monitor the perioperative course of high-risk patients and contribute to safer discharge.

• Dokumententyp: Zeitschriftenartikel
• Publikationsform: Publisher's Version
• Fakultät: Mathematik, Informatik und Statistik > Statistik > Lehrstühle/Arbeitsgruppen > Methoden für fehlende Daten, Modellselektion und Modellmittelung ; Mathematik, Informatik und Statistik > Statistik > Lehrstühle/Arbeitsgruppen > Statistisches Beratungslabor
• Themengebiete: 500 Naturwissenschaften und Mathematik > 510 Mathematik