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Fritzsche, Carolin and Vandrei, Lars (2019): The German real estate transfer tax: Evidence for single-family home transactions. In: Regional Science and Urban Economics, Vol. 74: pp. 131-143

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This paper uses recent data for single-family home purchases to study the effects of the German real estate transfer tax. We aim to separate the tax's anticipatory effects from its lock-in effects on real estate transactions. The data indicate that an increase in the transfer tax is negatively correlated with the number of transactions that take place in the market for single-family homes. We estimate that an increase in the transfer tax produces enormous anticipation effects: 41% more transactions for the month just before and 42% fewer transactions just after. In addition, a one-percentage-point increase in the transfer tax yields approximately 7% fewer transactions due to the lock-in effect.

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