Projection of Temperature-Related Myocardial Infarction in Augsburg, Germany

Chen, Kai; Breitner, Susanne; Wolf, Kathrin; Rai, Masna; Meisinger, Christa; Heier, Margit; Kuch, Bernhard; Peters, Annette ; Schneider, Alexandra; Schulz, H.; Schwettmann, L.; Leidl, R. und Strauch, K. (2019): Projection of Temperature-Related Myocardial Infarction in Augsburg, Germany. In: Deutsches Ärzteblatt International, Bd. 116, Nr. 31-32

Abstract

Background: Substantial efforts are required to limit global warming to under 2 degrees C, with 1.5 degrees C as the target (Paris Agreement goal). We set out to project future temperature-related myocardial infarction (MI) events in Augsburg, Germany, at increases in warming of 1.5 degrees C, 2 degrees C, and 3 degrees C. Methods: Using daily time series of MI cases and temperature projections under two climate scenarios, we projected changes in temperature-related MIs at different increases in warming, assuming no changes in population structure or level of adaptation. Results: In a low-emission scenario that limits warming to below 2 degrees C throughout the 21st century, temperature-related MI cases will decrease slightly by -6 (confidence interval -60;50) per decade at 1.5 degrees C of warming. In a high-emission scenario going beyond the Paris Agreement goals, temperature-related MI cases will increase by 18 (-64;117) and 63 (-83;257) per decade with warming of 2 degrees C and 3 degrees C, respectively. Conclusion: The future burden of temperature-related MI events in Augsburg at 2 degrees C and 3 degrees C of warming will be greater than at 1.5 degrees C. Fulfilling the Paris Agreement goal of limiting global warming to no more than 1.5 degrees C is therefore essential to avoid additional MI events due to climate change.

• Dokumententyp: Zeitschriftenartikel
• Fakultät: Medizin ; Medizin > Institut für Medizinische Informationsverarbeitung, Biometrie und Epidemiologie
• Themengebiete: 600 Technik, Medizin, angewandte Wissenschaften > 610 Medizin und Gesundheit
• ISSN: 1866-0452
• Sprache: Englisch