The effect of stress changes on time-dependent earthquake probabilities for the central Wasatch fault zone, Utah, USA

Verdecchia, A.; Carena, S.; Pace, B. und DuRoss, C. B. (2019): The effect of stress changes on time-dependent earthquake probabilities for the central Wasatch fault zone, Utah, USA. In: Geophysical Journal International, Bd. 219, Nr. 2: S. 1065-1081

Abstract

Static and quasi-static Coulomb stress changes produced by large earthquakes can modify the probability of occurrence of subsequent events on neighbouring faults. This approach is based on physical (Coulomb stress changes) and statistical (probability calculations) models, which are influenced by the quality and quantity of data available in the study region. Here, we focus on the Wasatch fault zone (WFZ), a well-studied active normal fault system having abundant geological and palaeoseismological data. Palaeoseismological trench investigations of the WFZ indicate that at least 24 large, surface-faulting earthquakes have ruptured the fault's five central, 35-59-km long segments since similar to 7 ka. Our goal is to determine if the stress changes due to the youngest palaeoevents have significantly modified the present-day probability of occurrence of large earthquakes on each of the segments. For each segment, we modelled the cumulative (coseismic + post-seismic) Coulomb stress changes (Delta CFScum) due to earthquakes younger than the most recent event on the segment in question and applied the resulting values to the time-dependent probability calculations. Results from the Coulomb stress modelling suggest that the Brigham City, Salt Lake City, and Provo segments have accumulated Delta CFScum larger than 10 bar, whereas the Weber segment has experienced a stress decrease of 5 bar, in the scenario of recent rupture of the Great Salt Lake fault to the west. Probability calculations predict high probability of occurrence for the Brigham City and Salt Lake City segments, due to their long elapsed times (>1-2 ka) when compared to the Weber, Provo and Nephi segments (<1 ka). The range of calculated coefficients of variation has a large influence on the final probabilities, mostly in the case of the Brigham City segment. Finally, when the Coulomb stress and the probability models are combined, our results indicate that the Delta CFScum resulting from earthquakes post-dating the youngest events on each of the five segments substantially affects the probability calculations for three of the segments: Brigham City, Salt Lake City and Provo. The probability of occurrence of a large earthquake in the next 50 yr on these three segments may, therefore, be underestimated if a time-independent approach, or a time-dependent approach that does not consider Delta CFS, is adopted.

• Dokumententyp: Zeitschriftenartikel
• Fakultät: Geowissenschaften > Department für Geo- und Umweltwissenschaften
• Themengebiete: 500 Naturwissenschaften und Mathematik > 550 Geowissenschaften, Geologie
• ISSN: 0956-540X
• Sprache: Englisch