Copula-Based Abrupt Variations Detection in the Relationship of Seasonal Vegetation-Climate in the Jing River Basin, China

Zhao, Jing; Huang, Shengzhi; Huang, Qiang; Wang, Hao; Leng, Guoyong; Peng, Jian und Dong, Haixia (2019): Copula-Based Abrupt Variations Detection in the Relationship of Seasonal Vegetation-Climate in the Jing River Basin, China. In: Remote Sensing, Bd. 11, Nr. 13, 1628

Abstract

Understanding the changing relationships between vegetation coverage and precipitation/temperature (P/T) and then exploring their potential drivers are highly necessary for ecosystem management under the backdrop of a changing environment. The Jing River Basin (JRB), a typical eco-environmentally vulnerable region of the Loess Plateau, was chosen to identify abrupt variations of the relationships between seasonal Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and P/T through a copula-based method. By considering the climatic/large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns and human activities, the potential causes of the non-stationarity of the relationship between NDVI and P/T were revealed. Results indicated that (1) the copula-based framework introduced in this study is more reasonable and reliable than the traditional double-mass curves method in detecting change points of vegetation and climate relationships;(2) generally, no significant change points were identified during 1982-2010 at the 95% confidence level, implying the overall stationary relationship still exists, while the relationships between spring NDVI and P/T, autumn NDVI and P have slightly changed;(3) teleconnection factors (including Arctic Oscillation (AO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), Nino 3.4, and sunspots) have a more significant influence on the relationship between seasonal NDVI and P/T than local climatic factors (including potential evapotranspiration and soil moisture);(4) negative human activities (expansion of farmland and urban areas) and positive human activities (Grain For Green program) were also potential factors affecting the relationship between NDVI and P/T. This study provides a new and reliable insight into detecting the non-stationarity of the relationship between NDVI and P/T, which will be beneficial for further revealing the connection between the atmosphere and ecosystems.

• Dokumententyp: Zeitschriftenartikel
• Fakultät: Geowissenschaften > Department für Geographie
• Themengebiete: 500 Naturwissenschaften und Mathematik > 550 Geowissenschaften, Geologie
• Sprache: Englisch