House Price Expectations

Gohl, Niklas; Haan, Peter; Michelsen, Claus und Weinhardt, Felix (21. Januar 2022): House Price Expectations. Collaborative Research Center Transregio 190, Discussion Paper No. 313

Abstract

This study examines short-, medium-, and long-run price expectations in housing markets. We derive and test six hypothesis about the incidence, formation, and relevance of price expectations. To do so, we use data from a tailored household survey, past sale and rental offerings, satellites, and from an information RCT. As novel findings, we show that price expectations exhibit mean reversion in the long-run. Moreover, we do not find evidence for biases related to individual housing tenure decisions or regret aversion. Confirming existing findings, we show that local market characteristics matter for expectations throughout, as well as aggregate price information. Lastly, we corroborate existing evidence that expectations are relevant for portfolio choice.

• Dokumententyp: Paper
• Keywords: housing markets, price expectations
• Fakultät: Volkswirtschaft > Collaborative Research Center Transregio "Rationality and Competition"
• Themengebiete: 300 Sozialwissenschaften > 330 Wirtschaft
• Sprache: Englisch