Improved long-term prognostic value of coronary CT angiography-derived plaque measures and clinical parameters on adverse cardiac outcome using machine learning

Tesche, Christian; Bauer, Maximilian J.; Baquet, Moritz; Hedels, Benedikt; Straube, Florian; Hartl, Stefan; Gray, Hunter N.; Jochheim, David; Aschauer, Theresia; Rogowski, Sebastian; Schoepf, U. Joseph; Massberg, Steffen; Hoffmann, Ellen und Ebersberger, Ullrich (2020): Improved long-term prognostic value of coronary CT angiography-derived plaque measures and clinical parameters on adverse cardiac outcome using machine learning. In: European Radiology, Bd. 31, Nr. 1: S. 486-493

Abstract

Objectives: To evaluate the long-term prognostic value of coronary CT angiography (cCTA)-derived plaque measures and clinical parameters on major adverse cardiac events (MACE) using machine learning (ML). Methods Datasets of 361 patients (61.9 +/- 10.3 years, 65% male) with suspected coronary artery disease (CAD) who underwent cCTA were retrospectively analyzed. MACE was recorded. cCTA-derived adverse plaque features and conventional CT risk scores together with cardiovascular risk factors were provided to a ML model to predict MACE. A boosted ensemble algorithm (RUSBoost) utilizing decision trees as weak learners with repeated nested cross-validation to train and validate the model was used. Performance of the ML model was calculated using the area under the curve (AUC). Results MACE was observed in 31 patients (8.6%) after a median follow-up of 5.4 years. Discriminatory power was significantly higher for the ML model (AUC 0.96 [95%CI 0.93-0.98]) compared with conventional CT risk scores including Agatston calcium score (AUC 0.84 [95%CI 0.80-0.87]), segment involvement score (AUC 0.88 [95%CI 0.84-0.91]), and segment stenosis score (AUC 0.89 [95%CI 0.86-0.92], allp < 0.05). Similar results were shown for adverse plaque measures (AUCs 0.72-0.82, allp < 0.05) and clinical parameters including the Framingham risk score (AUCs 0.71-0.76, allp < 0.05). The ML model yielded significantly higher diagnostic performance compared with logistic regression analysis (AUC 0.96 vs. 0.92,p = 0.024). Conclusion Integration of a ML model improves the long-term prediction of MACE when compared with conventional CT risk scores, adverse plaque measures, and clinical information. ML algorithms may improve the integration of patient's information to enhance risk stratification.

• Dokumententyp: Zeitschriftenartikel
• Fakultät: Medizin
• Themengebiete: 600 Technik, Medizin, angewandte Wissenschaften > 610 Medizin und Gesundheit
• ISSN: 0938-7994
• Sprache: Englisch