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Chen, Jie; Rodopoulou, Sophia; de Hoogh, Kees; Strak, Maciej; Andersen, Zorana J.; Atkinson, Richard; Bauwelinck, Mariska; Bellander, Tom; Brandt, Jorgen; Cesaroni, Giulia; Concin, Hans; Fecht, Daniela; Forastiere, Francesco; Gulliver, John; Hertel, Ole; Hoffmann, Barbara; Hvidtfeldt, Ulla Arthur; Janssen, Nicole A. H.; Joeckel, Karl-Heinz; Jorgensen, Jeanette; Katsouyanni, Klea; Ketzel, Matthias; Klompmaker, Jochem O.; Lager, Anton; Leander, Karin; Liu, Shuo; Ljungman, Petter; MacDonald, Conor J.; Magnusson, Patrik K. E.; Mehta, Amar; Nagel, Gabriele; Oftedal, Bente; Pershagen, Goran; Peters, Annette; Raaschou-Nielsen, Ole; Renzi, Matteo; Rizzuto, Debora; Samoli, Evangelia; Schouw, Yvonne T. van der; Schramm, Sara; Schwarze, Per; Sigsgaard, Torben; Sorensen, Mette; Stafoggia, Massimo; Tjonneland, Anne; Vienneau, Danielle; Weinmayr, Gudrun; Wolf, Kathrin; Brunekreef, Bert and Hoek, Gerard (2021): Long-Term Exposure to Fine Particle Elemental Components and Natural and Cause-Specific Mortality-a Pooled Analysis of Eight European Cohorts within the ELAPSE Project. In: Environmental Health Perspectives, Vol. 129, No. 4, 47009

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BACKGROUND: Inconsistent associations between long-term exposure to particles with an aerodynamic diameter <= 2.5 mu m [tine particulate matter (PM2.5)] components and mortality have been reported, partly related to challenges in exposure assessment. OBJECTIVES: We investigated the associations between long-term exposure to PM2.5 elemental components and mortality in a large pooled European cohort;to compare health effects of PM2.5 components estimated with two exposure modeling approaches, namely, supervised linear regression (SLR) and random forest (RF) algorithms. METHODS: We pooled data from eight European cohorts with 323,782 participants, average age 49 y at baseline (1985-2005). Residential exposure to 2010 annual average concentration of eight PM2.5 components [copper (Cu), iron (Fe), potassium (K), nickel (Ni), sulfur (S), silicon (Si), vanadium (V), and zinc (Zn)] was estimated with Europe-wide SLR and RF models at a 100 X 100 m scale. We applied Cox proportional hazards models to investigate the associations between components and natural and cause-specific mortality. In addition, two-pollutant analyses were conducted by adjusting each component for PM2.5 mass and nitrogen dioxide (NO2) separately. RESULTS: We observed 46,640 natural-cause deaths with 6,317,235 person-years and an average follow-up of 19.5 y. All SLR-modeled components were statistically significantly associated with natural-cause mortality in single-pollutant models with hazard ratios (HRs) from 1.05 to 1.27. Similar HRs were observed for RE-modeled Cu, Fe, K, S, V, and Zn with wider confidence intervals (CIs). HRs for SLR-modeled Ni, S, Si, V, and Zn remained above unity and (almost) significant after adjustment for both PM2.5 and NO2. HRs only remained (almost) significant for RE-modeled K and V in two-pollutant models. The HRs for V were 1.03 (95% CI: 1.02, 1.05) and 1.06 (95% CI: 1.02, 1.10) for SLR- and RF-modeled exposures, respectively, per 2 ng/m(3), adjusting for PM2.5 mass. Associations with cause-specific mortality were less consistent in two-pollutant models. CONCLUSION: Long-term exposure to V in PM2.5 was most consistently associated with increased mortality. Associations for the other components were weaker for exposure modeled with RE than SLR in two-pollutant models.

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