Cromwell, Elizabeth A.; Osborne, Joshua C. P.; Unnasch, Thomas R.; Basanez, Maria-Gloria; Gass, Katherine M.; Barbre, Kira A.; Hill, Elex; Johnson, Kimberly B.; Donkers, Katie M.; Shirude, Shreya; Schmidt, Chris A.; Adekanmbi, Victor; Adetokunboh, Olatunji O.; Afarideh, Mohsen; Ahmadpour, Ehsan; Ahmed, Muktar Beshir; Akalu, Temesgen Yihunie; Al-Aly, Ziyad; Alanezi, Fahad Mashhour; Alanzi, Turki M.; Alipour, Vahid; Andrei, Catalina Liliana; Ansari, Fereshteh; Ansha, Mustafa Geleto; Anvari, Davood; Appiah, Seth Christopher Yaw; Arabloo, Jalal; Arnold, Benjamin F.; Ausloos, Marcel; Ayanore, Martin Amogre; Baig, Atif Amin; Banach, Maciej; Barac, Aleksandra; Baernighausen, Till Winfried; Bayati, Mohsen; Bhattacharyya, Krittika; Bhutta, Zulfiqar A.; Bibi, Sadia; Bijani, Ali; Bohlouli, Somayeh; Bohluli, Mahdi; Brady, Oliver J.; Bragazzi, Nicola Luigi; Butt, Zahid A.; Carvalho, Felix; Chatterjee, Souranshu; Chattu, Vijay Kumar; Chattu, Soosanna Kumary; Cormier, Natalie Maria; Dahlawi, Saad M. A.; Damiani, Giovanni; Daoud, Farah; Darwesh, Aso Mohammad; Daryani, Ahmad; Deribe, Kebede; Dharmaratne, Samath Dhamminda; Diaz, Daniel; Do, Hoa Thi; El Sayed Zaki, Maysaa; El Tantawi, Maha; Elemineh, Demelash Abewa; Faraj, Anwar; Fasihi Harandi, Majid; Fatahi, Yousef; Feigin, Valery L.; Fernandes, Eduarda; Foigt, Nataliya A.; Foroutan, Masoud; Franklin, Richard Charles; Gubari, Mohammed Ibrahim Mohialdeen; Guido, Davide; Guo, Yuming; Haj-Mirzaian, Arvin; Hamagharib Abdullah, Kanaan; Hamidi, Samer; Herteliu, Claudiu; Hidru, Hagos Degefa de; Higazi, Tarig B.; Hossain, Naznin; Hosseinzadeh, Mehdi; Househ, Mowafa; Ilesanmi, Olayinka Stephen; Ilic, Milena D.; Ilic, Irena M.; Iqbal, Usman; Irvani, Seyed Sina Naghibi; Jha, Ravi Prakash; Joukar, Farahnaz; Jozwiak, Jacek Jerzy; Kabir, Zubair; Kalankesh, Leila R.; Kalhor, Rohollah; Karami Matin, Behzad; Karimi, Salah Eddin; Kasaeian, Amir; Kavetskyy, Taras; Kayode, Gbenga A.; Kazemi Karyani, Ali; Kelbore, Abraham Getachew; Keramati, Maryam; Khalilov, Rovshan; Khan, Ejaz Ahmad; Khan, Md Nuruzzaman Nuruzzaman; Khatab, Khaled; Khater, Mona M.; Kianipour, Neda; Kibret, Kelemu Tilahun; Kim, Yun Jin; Kosen, Soewarta; Krohn, Kris J.; Kusuma, Dian; La Vecchia, Carlo; Lansingh, Van Charles; Lee, Paul H.; LeGrand, Kate E.; Li, Shanshan; Longbottom, Joshua; Magdy Abd El Razek, Hassan; Magdy Abd El Razek, Muhammed; Maleki, Afshin; Mamun, Abdullah A.; Manafi, Ali; Manafi, Navid; Mansournia, Mohammad Ali; Martins-Melo, Francisco Rogerlandio; Mazidi, Mohsen; McAlinden, Colm; Meharie, Birhanu Geta; Mendoza, Walter; Mengesha, Endalkachew Worku; Mengistu, Desalegn Tadese; Mereta, Seid Tiku; Mestrovic, Tomislav; Miller, Ted R.; Miri, Mohammad; Moghadaszadeh, Masoud; Mohammadian-Hafshejani, Abdollah; Mohammadpourhodki, Reza; Mohammed, Shafiu; Mohammed, Salahuddin; Moradi, Masoud; Moradzadeh, Rahmatollah; Moraga, Paula; Mosser, Jonathan F.; Naderi, Mehdi; Nagarajan, Ahamarshan Jayaraman; Naik, Gurudatta; Negoi, Ionut; Nguyen, Cuong Tat; Nguyen, Huong Lan Thi; Nguyen, Trang Huyen; Nikbakhsh, Rajan; Oancea, Bogdan; Olagunju, Tinuke O.; Olagunju, Andrew T.; Omar Bali, Ahmed; Onwujekwe, Obinna E.; Pana, Adrian; Pourjafar, Hadi; Rahim, Fakher; Rahman, Mohammad Hifz Ur; Rathi, Priya; Rawaf, Salman; Rawaf, David Laith; Rawassizadeh, Reza; Resnikoff, Serge; Reta, Melese Abate; Rezapour, Aziz; Rubagotti, Enrico; Rubino, Salvatore; Sadeghi, Ehsan; Saghafipour, Abedin; Sajadi, S. Mohammad; Samy, Abdallah M.; Sarmiento-Suarez, Rodrigo; Sawhney, Monika; Schipp, Megan F.; Shaheen, Amira A.; Shaikh, Masood Ali; Shamsizadeh, Morteza; Sharafi, Kiomars; Sheikh, Aziz; Shetty, B. Suresh Kumar; Shin, Jae Il; Shivakumar, K. M.; Simonetti, Biagio; Singh, Jasvinder A.; Skiadaresi, Eirini; Soheili, Amin; Soltani, Shahin; Spurlock, Emma Elizabeth; Sufiyan, Mu'awiyyah Babale; Tabuchi, Takahiro; Tapak, Leili; Thompson, Robert L.; Thomson, Alan J.; Traini, Eugenio; Tran, Bach Xuan; Ullah, Irfan; Ullah, Saif; Uneke, Chigozie Jesse; Unnikrishnan, Bhaskaran; Uthman, Olalekan A.; Vinkeles Melchers, Natalie V. S.; Violante, Francesco S.; Wolde, Haileab Fekadu; Wonde, Tewodros Eshete; Yamada, Tomohide; Yaya, Sanni; Yazdi-Feyzabadi, Vahid; Yip, Paul; Yonemoto, Naohiro; Yousof, Hebat-Allah Salah A.; Yu, Chuanhua; Yu, Yong; Yusefzadeh, Hasan; Zaki, Leila; Zaman, Sojib Bin; Zamanian, Maryam; Zhang, Zhi-Jiang; Zhang, Yunquan; Ziapour, Arash; Hay, Simon I. und Pigott, David M.
(2021):
Predicting the environmental suitability for onchocerciasis in Africa as an aid to elimination planning.
In: PLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases
15(7), e0008824
Volltext auf 'Open Access LMU' nicht verfügbar.
Abstract
Author summary As of 2018, it was unknown if onchocerciasis transmission occurred among approximately 2 400 implementation units (IUs;typically, second administrative-level units, such as districts) considered potentially endemic. These IUs have either never been surveyed for onchocerciasis or historical data are not sufficient to define contemporary endemicity status. Given the large number of IUs for which baseline data collection is likely required to achieve continental elimination, there is a need to prioritise areas for surveys to ensure that those suitable for endemic transmission, and therefore potentially eligible for mass drug administration, are able to initiate interventions as soon as possible. We used boosted regression trees to predict environmental suitability for onchocerciasis, with corresponding measures of uncertainty. We summarized the fine scale spatial predictions at the IU level by using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis to identify a threshold that maximized agreement with the occurrence locations to identify IUs that may warrant prioritisation for mapping surveys. This analysis suggests that approximately half of the IUs considered for surveys could be classified as environmentally suitable for onchocerciasis. In order to develop an elimination strategy, many national onchocerciasis elimination programmes (NOEPs) need a mechanism to synthesise historical data to define priority areas for surveys. Recent evidence suggests that, in some foci, elimination of onchocerciasis from Africa may be feasible with mass drug administration (MDA) of ivermectin. To achieve continental elimination of transmission, mapping surveys will need to be conducted across all implementation units (IUs) for which endemicity status is currently unknown. Using boosted regression tree models with optimised hyperparameter selection, we estimated environmental suitability for onchocerciasis at the 5 x 5-km resolution across Africa. In order to classify IUs that include locations that are environmentally suitable, we used receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis to identify an optimal threshold for suitability concordant with locations where onchocerciasis has been previously detected. This threshold value was then used to classify IUs (more suitable or less suitable) based on the location within the IU with the largest mean prediction. Mean estimates of environmental suitability suggest large areas across West and Central Africa, as well as focal areas of East Africa, are suitable for onchocerciasis transmission, consistent with the presence of current control and elimination of transmission efforts. The ROC analysis identified a mean environmental suitability index of 0 center dot 71 as a threshold to classify based on the location with the largest mean prediction within the IU. Of the IUs considered for mapping surveys, 50 center dot 2% exceed this threshold for suitability in at least one 5 x 5-km location. The formidable scale of data collection required to map onchocerciasis endemicity across the African continent presents an opportunity to use spatial data to identify areas likely to be suitable for onchocerciasis transmission. National onchocerciasis elimination programmes may wish to consider prioritising these IUs for mapping surveys as human resources, laboratory capacity, and programmatic schedules may constrain survey implementation, and possibly delaying MDA initiation in areas that would ultimately qualify.
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