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Kiyota, Kozo; Maruyama, Sawako and Taniguchi, Mina (2021): The China syndrome: A cross-country evidence. In: World Economy, Vol. 44, No. 9: pp. 2758-2792

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While in many advanced countries the increasing import competition from China on employment is a major concern for policymakers and the general public, its impact of Chinese import competition could be different across countries, depending upon the volume and the composition of the products. This paper examines the impact of the China shock on employment in six advanced countries. We find that the import penetration of final goods from China has negative effects on manufacturing employment in these countries, whereas the import penetration of intermediate inputs from and the exports to China could have positive effects. Moreover, such positive effects could offset or even outweigh the negative effects in some countries. These results together suggest that a careful interpretation is needed when evaluating the external validity of the China shock that is obtained in one country.

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