The Outbreak of the Russian Banking Crisis

Fidrmuc, Jarko and Süß, Philipp Johann (17. September 2009): The Outbreak of the Russian Banking Crisis. What a Surprise! Discussion Papers in Economics 2009-16

Abstract

Russian banks have been strongly influenced by the worldwide financial crisis which started in the second half of 2008. This was caused by a combination of domestic, regional and international factors. We estimate an early warning model for the Russian crisis. We identified 47 Russian banks which failed after September 2008. Using the Bankscope data set, we show that balance sheet indicators were informative about possible failures of these banks as early as 2006. The early predictive indicators include especially equity, net interest revenues, return on average equity, net loans, and loan loss reserves.

• Item Type: Paper
• Form of publication: Preprint
• Keywords: Banking and financial crisis, early warning models, Russia, Logit.
• Faculties: Economics; Economics > Munich Discussion Papers in Economics; Economics > Munich Discussion Papers in Economics > Financial Markets; Economics > Munich Discussion Papers in Economics > Institutional Economics; Economics > Munich Discussion Papers in Economics > Transition Economics
• Subjects: 300 Social sciences > 300 Social sciences, sociology and anthropology; 300 Social sciences > 330 Economics
• JEL Classification: G33, G21, C25
• Language: English

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