Assessing inference to the best explanation posteriors for the estimation of economic agent-based models

De Pretis, Francesco ; Glielmo, Aldo und Landes, Jürgen (Mai 2025): Assessing inference to the best explanation posteriors for the estimation of economic agent-based models. In: International Journal of Approximate Reasoning, Bd. 180, 109388

Abstract

Explanatory relationships between data and hypotheses have been suggested to play a role in the formation of posterior probabilities. This suggestion was tested in a toy environment and supported by simulations by David H. Glass. We here put forward a variety of inference to the best explanation approaches for determining posterior probabilities by intertwining Bayesian and inference to the best explanation approaches. We then simulate their performances for the estimation of parameters in the Brock and Hommes agent-based model for asset pricing in finance. We find that performances depend on circumstances and also on the evaluation metric. However, most of the time our suggested approaches outperform the Bayesian approach.

• Dokumententyp: Zeitschriftenartikel
• Fakultät: Philosophie, Wissenschaftstheorie und Religionswissenschaft > Munich Center for Mathematical Philosophy (MCMP)
• Themengebiete: 100 Philosophie und Psychologie > 100 Philosophie ; 500 Naturwissenschaften und Mathematik > 510 Mathematik
• ISSN: 0888613X
• Sprache: Englisch
• DFG: Gefördert durch die Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (DFG) - 528031869