Residual and forecast methods in time series models with covariates.
Collaborative Research Center 386, Discussion Paper 33
We are dealing with time series which are measured on an arbitrary scale, e.g. on a categorical or ordinal scale, and which are recorded together with time varying covariates. The conditional expectations are modelled as a regression model, its parameters are estimated via likelihood- or quasi-likelihood-approach. Our main concern are diagnostic methods and forecasting procedures for such time series models. Diagnostics are based on (partial) residual measures as well as on (partial) residual variables; l-step predictors are gained by an approximation formula for conditional expectations. The various methods proposed are illustrated by two different data sets.