|Carstensen, Kai; Hagen, Jan; Hossfeld, Oliver; Neaves, Abelardo S. (2009): Money demand stability and inflation prediction in the four largest EMU countries. In: Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Vol. 56, No. 1: pp. 73-93|
In this paper, we analyze the money demand functions of the four largest EMU countries and of the four-country (EMU-4) aggregate. We identify reasonable and stable money demand relationships for Germany, France and Spain as well as the EMU-4 aggregate. For the case of Italy, results are less clear. From the estimated money demand functions, we derive both EMU-4 and country-specific measures of money overhang. We find that the EMU-4 overhang measure strongly correlates with the country-specific measures, particularly since the start of EMU, and is useful to predict country-specific inflation. However, it generally does not encompass country-specific money overhang measures as predictors of inflation. Hence, aggregate money overhang is an important, but by far not an exhaustive, indicator for the disaggregate level.
Economics > Chairs > CESifo-Professorship for Business Cycle Analysis and Surveys (closed)
|Subjects:||300 Social sciences > 330 Economics|
|Deposited On:||15. Apr 2014 08:55|
|Last Modified:||29. Apr 2016 09:17|