

Abstract
A novel point process model continuous in space-time is proposed for quantifying the transmission dynamics of the two most common meningococcal antigenic sequence types observed in Germany 2002-2008. Modelling is based on the conditional intensity function (CIF) which is described by a superposition of additive and multiplicative components. As an epidemiological interesting finding, spread behaviour was shown to depend on type in addition to age: basic reproduction numbers were 0.25 (95% CI 0.19-0.34) and 0.11 (95% CI 0.07-0.17) for types B:P1.7-2,4:F1-5 and C:P1.5,2:F3-3, respectively. Altogether, the proposed methodology represents a comprehensive and universal regression framework for the modelling, simulation and inference of self-exciting spatio-temporal point processes based on the CIF. Usability of the modelling in biometric practice is promoted by an implementation in the R package surveillance.
Item Type: | Journal article |
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Form of publication: | Postprint |
Keywords: | Conditional intensity function; Infectious disease surveillance data; Spatiotemporal point process; Stochastic epidemic modeling |
Faculties: | Mathematics, Computer Science and Statistics > Statistics |
Subjects: | 300 Social sciences > 310 Statistics 600 Technology > 610 Medicine and health |
URN: | urn:nbn:de:bvb:19-epub-25195-2 |
ISSN: | 0099-4987 |
Language: | English |
Item ID: | 25195 |
Date Deposited: | 28. Aug 2015, 13:50 |
Last Modified: | 04. Nov 2020, 13:06 |