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Schauberger, Gunther; Groll, Andreas; Tutz, Gerhard (25. August 2016): Modeling Football Results in the German Bundesliga Using Match-specific Covariates. Department of Statistics: Technical Reports, No.197




In modern football, various variables as, for example, the distances the teams run or the percentages of ball possession, are collected throughout a match. However, there is a lack of methods to make use of these variables simultaneously and to connect them with the final result of the match. This paper considers data from the German Bundesliga season 2015/16. The objective is to identify the variables that are connected to the sportive success or failure of the single teams. A paired comparison model for football matches is proposed that is able to take into account match-specific covariates. The model extends the Bradley-Terry model in many different ways. In addition to the inclusion of covariates, it uses ordered response values and includes (possibly team-specific) home effects. Penalty terms are used to reduce the complexity of the model and to find clusters of teams with equal covariate effects.