Concepts for Decision Making under Severe Uncertainty with Partial Ordinal and Partial Cardinal Preferences

Jansen, Christoph; Schollmeyer, Georg und Augustin, Thomas (24. April 2018): Concepts for Decision Making under Severe Uncertainty with Partial Ordinal and Partial Cardinal Preferences. Department of Statistics: Technical Reports, Nr. 216

Abstract

We introduce three different approaches for decision making under uncertainty if (I) there is only partial (both cardinally and ordinally scaled) information on an agent’s preferences and (II) the uncertainty about the states of nature is described by a credal set (or some other imprecise probabilistic model). Particularly, situation (I) is modeled by a pair of binary relations, one specifying the partial rank order of the alternatives and the other modeling partial information on the strength of preference. Our first approach relies on decision criteria constructing complete rankings of the available acts that are based on generalized expectation intervals. Subsequently, we introduce different concepts of global admissibility that construct partial orders between the available acts by comparing them all simultaneously. Finally, we define criteria induced by suitable binary relations on the set of acts and, therefore, can be understood as concepts of local admissibility. For certain criteria, we provide linear programming based algorithms for checking optimality/admissibility of acts. Additionally, the paper includes a discussion of a prototypical situation by means of a toy example.

• Dokumententyp: Paper
• Keywords: partial preferences; decision making under uncertainty; ordinality; cardinality; utility representation; imprecise probabilities; credal set; stochastic dominance; admissibility; linear programming
• Fakultät: Mathematik, Informatik und Statistik > Statistik > Technische Reports ; Mathematik, Informatik und Statistik > Statistik > Lehrstühle/Arbeitsgruppen > Method(olog)ische Grundlagen der Statistik und ihre Anwendungen
• Themengebiete: 500 Naturwissenschaften und Mathematik > 510 Mathematik
• Sprache: Englisch