
Abstract
We review the performance of the PollyVote, which combined forecasts from polls, prediction markets, experts’ judgment, political economy models, and index models to predict the two-party popular vote in the 2012 US presidential election. Throughout the election year the PollyVote provided highly accurate forecasts, outperforming each of its component methods, as well as the forecasts from FiveThirtyEight.com. Gains in accuracy were particularly large early in the campaign, when uncertainty about the election outcome is typically high. The results confirm prior research showing that combining is one of the most effective approaches to generating accurate forecasts.
Item Type: | Journal article |
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Faculties: | Social Sciences > Communication |
Subjects: | 300 Social sciences > 300 Social sciences, sociology and anthropology |
URN: | urn:nbn:de:bvb:19-epub-59145-3 |
Alliance/National Licence: | This publication is with permission of the rights owner freely accessible due to an Alliance licence and a national licence (funded by the DFG, German Research Foundation) respectively. |
Language: | English |
Item ID: | 59145 |
Date Deposited: | 26. Nov 2018, 13:06 |
Last Modified: | 04. Nov 2020, 13:38 |